UNIVERSITY   OF   CALIFORNIA 

COLLEGE   OF   AGRICULTURE 

AGRICULTURAL    EXPERIMENT   STATION 

BERKELEY,   CALIFORNIA 


ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE 
CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


E.  RAUCHENSTEIN 


BULLETIN  419 

February,  1927 


UNIVERSITY  OF  CALIFORNIA  PRINTING  OFFICE 

BERKELEY,  CALIFORNIA 

1927 


ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE 
INDUSTRY 

E.  KAUCHENSTEINi 


SUMMARY 


The  cantaloupe  industry  has  been  expanding  rapidly  in  the  irri- 
gated areas  of  southwestern  United  States,  especially  in  the  Imperial 
Valley  of  California,  The  eastern  and  southern  states  are  increasing 
only  slightly  in  cantaloupe  shipments.  The  shipments  from  Arkansas 
and  Indiana,  although  comprising  but  a  small  proportion  of  the  total 
United  States  shipments,  have  shown  decided  increases. 

Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes  have  ripened  much  earlier  in  1924, 
1925,  and  1926  than  in  previous  years.  The  increase  in  early  ripen- 
ing has  been  attributed  largely  to  the  introduction  of  certain  new 
varieties  and  to  the  use  of  brush  shelter.  However,  there  are  two  other 
factors  which  need  to  be  considered  in  comparing  earliness  of  ripening 
when  judged,  as  it  usually  is,  by  the  date  when  the  first  carlot  was 
shipped  out  of  the  Valley.  These  factors  are,  first,  the  increase  in 
acreage  which  makes  it  possible  to  get  a  carlot  together  earlier  now 
than  formerly,  and  second,  the  relatively  high  temperatures  which 
have  prevailed  during  the  growing  period  in  recent  years  compared 
with  the  earlier  years.  The  latter  is  undoubtedly  purely  a  matter  of 
chance  and  cannot  be  expected  to  continue. 

The  first  cantaloupe  shipments  from  Imperial  Valley  usually  come 
onto  the  markets  in  June  and  miss  the  keenest  competition  from  such 
other  fresh  fruits  as  peaches  and  watermelons.  Thus  prices  are 
obtained  for  the  early  cantaloupes  which  have  greatly  stimulated  their 
production  in  Imperial  Valley. 

The  number  of  carlots  of  cantaloupes  shipped  from  Imperial  Valley 
increased  from  4446  in  1914  to  13,410  in  1925,  and  the  total  number 
of  cities  receiving  over  one  carlot  increased  from  176  in  1914  to  373 
in  1925. 

The  average  price  of  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes  during  any 
season  is  closely  related  to  the  acreage  planted  in  Imperial  Valley  the 
following  year.  This  is  especially  marked  for  the  years  1920  to  1926, 
for  which  it  was  possible  to  calculate  weighted  prices.  The  degree  of 
relationship  between  weighted  New  York  prices  and  the  acreage  of 


Associate  in  Agricultural  Economics. 


4  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

the  following  year  is  shown  by  the  correlation  coefficient  of  0.98. 
(A  correlation  coefficient  of  1.0  indicates  perfect  relationship.)  In 
other  words,  years  of  high  prices  are  followed  by  marked  increases 
in  acreage  and  years  of  low  prices  are  followed  by  marked  decreases 
in  acreage. 

Approximately  20  per  cent  of  Imperial  Valley  shipments  are  sold 
f .o.b.  loading  point,  The  f .o.b.  prices  for  each  individual  year  except 
for  1926  are  closely  related  to  shipments.  However,  there  are  rather 
wide  variations  between  years,  which  make  it  inadvisable  to  work  out 
a  general  estimating  equation  for  estimating  future  prices  from  ship- 
ments. The  records  of  individual  years,  however,  should  be  of  value 
in  judging  the  course  of  future  prices  whenever  conditions  at  that 
future  time  are  similar  to  those  of  some  past  year. 

New  York  prices  of  cantaloupes  are  closely  related  to  receipts, 
temperature,  and  time  of  the  season.  If  we  take  (1)  weekly  averages 
of  carlot  receipts,  (2)  maximum  temperatures  with  a  three-day  lag, 
and  (3)  the  time  of  the  season,  and  correlate  these  with  average 
weekly  prices  for  the  years  1921  to  1926,  we  find  that  approximately 
88  per  cent  of  the  variations  in  the  average  weekly  prices  are 
accounted  for  by  these  three  factors.  Estimated  average  weekly  prices 
for  the  period  1921  to  1926  based  on  the  average  relationships  between 
prices,  receipts,  temperatures,  and  time  of  season  come  fairly  close  to 
the  actual  prices.  Actual  prices  paid  tend  to  alternate  above  and 
below  the  estimated  prices,  which  suggests  that  one  reason  for  the 
differences  between  actual  and  estimated  prices  is  that  dealers  in 
estimating  the  demand  of  the  consumer  tend  to  go  from  one  extreme 
to  the  other. 

Assuming  that  the  same  relationship  between  prices,  receipts,  tem- 
peratures, and  time  will  prevail  in  1927  as  prevailed  during  the  years 
1921  to  1926,  we  may  use  the  average  results  of  this  period  as  a  basis 
for  estimating  prices  in  1927.  This  should  be  supplemented,  however, 
by  any  other  factors  which  come  to  the  dealers'  attention  which  are 
not  included  in  this  study  but  which  may  affect  demand.  Thus  the 
quality  of  cantaloupes  affects  the  demand,  but  no  measure  of  quality 
has  been  available  to  be  included  in  this  study  in  estimating  future 
prices  on  the  basis  of  past  records.  Special  weather  conditions  other 
than  maximum  temperature,  prices  and  quality  of  competing  fruits, 
and  the  buying  power  of  the  consumers,  may  also  affect  the  demand 
of  consumers. 


Bul.  419 


ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


OBJECT  OF  THIS   STUDY 

The  object  of  this  paper  is  to  present  and  to  analyze  the  available 
data  that  have  an  economic  bearing  on  the  cantaloupe  industry  in  the 
United  States  in  general,  with  special  reference  to  the  cantaloupe 
industry  in  the  Imperial  Valley.  Those  factors  which  affect  prices  of 
Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes  and  the  effect  of  prices  on  subsequent 
acreage  are  analyzed  in  considerable  detail  with  the  hope  of  bringing 
about  a  more  stable  industry. 

Average    Coriot    Shipments    of    Ceni-aloupes    for    /9Z4    and  /9Z5 
by    Points    o-f  Origin 


Each   Do-h  Represents    lOO    Car/ots 
deg/nn/ng    ancf  Endr'ng  Do+e 
o-f  Shipping    Season    Given    Gy   Sections 


Fig.  1. — Data  from  table  1.  Most  of  the  cantaloupes  are  now  produced  in  the 
irrigated  sections  of  the  West,  where  the  yields  and  color  of  the  fruit  are  more 
uniform  than  in  the  East  on  non-irrigated  land.  The  earliest  cantaloupes  are 
produced  in  the  Imperial  Valley  of  southern  California. 


AREAS  PRODUCING  CANTALOUPES  IN  THE  UNITED  STATES 

Based  on  average  carlot  shipments  for  1924  and  1925,  the  most 
important  cantaloupe  shipping  areas  in  the  United  States  are  in  the 
West,  mainly  on  irrigated  land.  The  Imperial  Valley  of  California 
alone  shipped  14,583  carlots,  almost  one-half  of  the  total  carlot  ship- 
ments in  the  United  States  during  these  two  years,  and  the  state  as  a 
whole  shipped  17,395  carlots,  which  was  58.9  per  cent  of  the  United 
States  total.  Colorado  was  second  in  shipments  with  2938  carlots  (see 
table  1  and  fig.  1)  and  Arizona  was  third  with  2461  carlots.  Arkansas, 


b  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

Indiana,  Maryland,  Delaware,  New  Mexico,  and  North  Carolina  fol- 
lowed next  in  order,  each  with  more  than  500  carlots  shipped  annually. 
The  acreage  figures  for  1919,  shown  in  table  2,  emphasize  eastern 
production  to  a  greater  extent  than  is  shown  by  the  reports  of  carlot 
shipments.  For  example,  Colorado  and  Arizona  are  second  and  third 
in  shipments,  but  sixth  and  seventh,  respectively,  in  acreage.     Mary- 

TABLE  1 

Average  Carlot  Shipments  of  Cantaloupes  for  1924  and  1925  by  States  or 
Sections  of  Origin  in  the  United  States 


State  or  section 


California — Imperial  Valley. 
California — Central  District 

Colorado 

Arizona 

Arkansas 

Indiana 

Maryland 

Delaware 

New  Mexico 

North  Carolina 

Texas 

Georgia 

Nevada 

Washington 

Michigan 

Tennessee 

New  Jersey 

Total 


Ship- 
ments, 
carlots 


14,583 

2,776 

2,938 

2,461 

1,128 

955 

908 

584 

546 

528 

443 

351 

289 

259 

130 

120 

109 


29,108 


State  or  section 


Illinois 

Iowa 

South  Carolina 

Oklahoma 

California — Northern  District 

Virginia 

Missouri 

Kansas 

Kentucky 

Louisiana 

Florida 

New  York 

Idaho 

Alabama 

Utah 

Oregon 

California — Southern  District. 

Grand  total 


Ship- 
ments, 
carlots 


86 

81 

72 

50 

35 

27 

21 

18 

9 

6 

6 

3 

2 

2 

2 

1 

1 


422 


29,530 


Compiled  from  Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals— 1925.    p.   18.(1)     Hereafter,  superscript 
figures  in  parentheses  will  be  used  to  refer  to  literature  cited  on  last  page  of  this  bulletin.) 

land  is  third  in  acreage,  but  sixth  in  shipments.  Indiana  is  fourth  in 
acreage,  but  fifth  in  shipments.  The  differences  in  the  order  of 
importance  as  shown  by  shipments  reported  in  the  Bureau  of  Agri- 
cultural Economics,  United  States  Department  of  Agriculture  Canta- 
loupe Deals  (table  1)  and  the  1920  census  (table  2)  are  probably  due 
to  two  factors.  First,  the  yields  through  the  Middle  West  and  the 
East  are  somewhat  lower  than  in  the  important  irrigated  sections. 
Second,  in  states  that  are  close  to  large  markets  a  considerable  pro- 
portion of  the  cantaloupe  crop  may  be  hauled  by  trucks,  and  hence 
will  not  be  reported  in  carlot  shipments. 


BUL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


TREND  OF  CANTALOUPE  PRODUCTION   IN  VARIOUS  SECTIONS  OF 
THE  UNITED  STATES 

A  general  idea  of  the  trend  in  cantaloupe  production  by  states 
since  1899  may  be  obtained  from  the  United  States  Census  which  is 
summarized  in  table  2.  The  acreages  given  for  1909  are  not  strictly 
comparable  with  those  given  for  1899  and  1919  since  the  latter  two 

TABLE  2 
Cantaloupe  Acreages  in-  the  United  States  by  States  Having  More  than 

1000  Acres  in  1919 


State 


California 

Colorado 

Arizona 

Arkansas 

Indiana 

Maryland 

Delaware 

New  Mexico 

North  Carolina 

Texas 

Georgia 

Michigan 

New  Jersey 

Illinois 

Virginia 

Florida 

New  York 

Ohio '. 

All  others 

Total  United  States. 


1899 


60,854 


1909 


764 

5,784 

21,470 

2,329 

3,970 

4,007 

117 

452 

3,300 

2,388 

994 

8,999 

3,517 

3,855 

4,182 

3,461 

3,516 

4,665 

358 

1,163 

2,500 

638 

491 

1,022 

1,729 

2,256 

2,130 

5,781 

1,685 

2,093 

1,707 

3,022 

1,659 

2,231 

1,829 

2,347 

6,548 

3,861 

4,231 

3,646 

2,332 

1,481 

3,028 

969 

1,383 

2,087 

3,408 

1,079 

1,533 

978 

1,091 

2,256 

1,665 

1,446 

16,736 

10,189 

9,351 

52,419 


1919 


78,436 


Acreages  for  1899  from  Twelfth  Census  of  the  United  States  6:338;  for  1909  from  Thirteenth  Census 
of  the  United  States  5:668;  and  for  1919  from  Fourteenth  Census  of  the  United  States  5:819,  824. 

are  based  on  acreages  of  cantaloupes  or  muskmelons  raised  for  sale, 
while  in  1909  the  acreage  was  based  on  all  farm  reports  showing  more 
than  one  acre  of  truck  crops. 

California  shows  the  greatest  increase  in  acreage  of  cantaloupes, 
viz.,  from  764  acres  in  1899  to  21,470  in  1919.  Colorado,  Arizona,  and 
Arkansas  also  show  substantial  increases  during  that  time.  Indiana, 
Maryland,  and  North  Carolina  show  moderate  increases,  while  Illinois, 
Virginia,  Florida,  and  Ohio  show  decided  decreases. 


8 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 


A  rough  measure  of  the  trend  of  the  cantaloupe  industry  in  the 
United  States  during  the  last  ten  years  can  be  obtained  from  the 
records  of  carlot  shipments.  Table  3  and  figure  2  show  the  carlot  ship- 
ments by  states  and  by  sections  from  1916  to  1925.  These  data  may 
be  affected  to  some  extent  by  the  completeness  of  the  returns  on  ship- 
ments. However,  the  comparison  of  trends  between  sections  should  be 
reasonably  accurate. 

TABLE  3 
Carlot  Shipments  of  Cantaloupes  by  Sections  or  States  of  Origin,  1916-1925 


State  and  section 

1916 

1917 

1918 

1919 

1920 

1921 

1922 

1923 

1924 

1925 

Section  1: 
Imperial  Valley 

4,617 

5,007 

4,398 

7,831 

8,903 

10,686 

12,159 

12,583 

15,756 

13,410 

Section  2: 
Southwestern  States — 
Arizona 

839 

3,472 

1,740 

316 

51 

1,215 

3,251 

1,898 
139 
227 

1,169 

2,450 

1,818 

36 

256 

9 

1,832 

4,179 

3,132 

36 

378 

123 

1,164 

4,197 
2,454 

48 
937 
22 

1,474 

2,491 

3,215 

74 

421 

162 

1,558 

3,145 

4,420 

164 

275 

186 

1,208 

2,866 

2,195 

107 

364 

387 

1,864 

2,536 

2,654 

231 

518 

416 

3,057 

California    (excluding 
Imperial  Valley) 

3,086 

3,222 

Nevada 

346 

Mew  Mexico 

574 

470 

6,418 

6,730 

5,738 

9,680 

8,822 

7,837 

9,748 

7,127 

8,219 

10,755 

Section  3: 
East  and  South — 

905 
975 
1,087 
844 
74 
348 

702 
789 
855 
1,106 
157 
249 

429 
551 
490 
418 
31 
129 

590 
314 
835 
523 
100 
183 

581 
389 
771 
359 
110 
208 

943 
640 
1,206 
821 
299 
469 

843 
1,632 
1,233 
700 
270 
447 

818 
216 
1,270 
620 
70 
341 

511 
586 
699 
401 
115 
232 

657 

117 

Maryland 

1,116 

655 

South  Carolina 

29 

509 

4,233 

3,858 

2,048 

2,545 

2,418 

4,378 

5,125 

3,335 

2,544 

3,083 

Section  4: 
Middle    West,    Arkansas 
and  Washington — 

603 
45 

794 
31 
13 

260 

797 
119 
664 
68 
42 
145 

699 
103 
443 
43 
37 
110 

1,106 

85 

462 

26 

204 

100 

936 
85 

635 
40 

209 

329 

1,501 
97 
644 
41 
176 
209 

990 
116 
894 
49 
465 
371 

337 
86 
681 
109 
306 
207 

1,052 
45 

822 

79 

114 

298 

1,203 

126 

1,087 

82 

146 

220 

1,746 

1,835 

1,435 

1,983 

2,234 

2,668 

2,885 

1,726 

2,410 

2,864 

17,014 

17,430 

13,619 

22,039 

22,377 

25,569 

29,917 

24,771 

28,929 

30,112 

Years  1916-1922,  except  for  Imperial  Valley  alone,  from  Colorado  cantaloupe  deal,  1923.    p.  9.(2) 

Year  1923  from  U.  S.  D.  A.  Yearbook  1924.    p.  694. 

Years  1924  and  1925  from  Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals— 1925.    p.  18.(1) 

Imperial  Valley  shipments  1916-1923  from  the  Packer,  May  15,  1926;  years  1924,  1925  from  Summary 
of  western  cantaloupe  deals. (1)  For  1916-1923  Imperial  Valley  shipments  were  subtracted  from  total  for 
the  state  to  obtain  shipments  for  California  excluding  Imperial  Valley. 


BuL..  419]         ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  9 

Figure  2  shows  that  since  1920  the  Imperial  Valley  has  shipped 
more  carlots  of  cantaloupes  than  any  of  the  other  sections.  From  a 
total  of  4617  carlots  in  1916,  shipments  have  increased  rapidly  to  a 
total  of  15,756  in  1924,  and  13,410  in  1925.  In  other  words,  the  ship- 
ments of  cantaloupes  in  the  Imperial  Valley  during  the  past  ten  years 
increased  approximately  200  per  cent,  while  the  population  in  the 
United  States  increased  13.1  per  cent. 

Trend  of  Carlot  Shipments  of  Cantaloupes  prom  Various  Sections  op  the 
United  States,  1916-1925 

"Thousands  


Fig.  2. — Illustrating  table  3.  The  Imperial  Valley  is  the  most  important 
cantaloupe  producing  area  in  the  United  States  and  has  increased  the  fastest. 
The  early  western  irrigated  sections  have  generally  shown  the  greatest  increase. 
In  the  Middle  West,  Indiana  and  Arkansas  have  shown  the  most  important 
increases. 


Next  in  importance  to  the  Imperial  Valley  is  section  2,  which 
includes  the  rest  of  California  and  all  of  the  other  southwestern  states. 
Practically  all  of  the  cantaloupes  in  this  area  are  grown  under  irriga- 
tion, and  hence  yields  tend  to  be  more  uniform  from  year  to  year 
than  in  those  sections  that  depend  entirely  on  rainfall  for  water.  The 
cantaloupes  here  are  also  generally  free  from  the  white  color  which 
develops  on  the  underside  of  cantaloupes  that  lie  on  the  wet  ground. 
This  advantage,  in  addition  to  the  better  grading  and  packing  methods 
which  are  generally  followed  in  the  cantaloupe  growing  sections  of  the 


10  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

southwest,  probably  accounts  for  the  premium  which  these  cantaloupes 
usually  bring  on  the  markets.  The  increase  in  shipments  in  this 
section  from  1916  to  1925  has  been  more  than  50  per  cent.  The 
Turlock  district  of  California,  the  Rocky  Ford  district  of  Colorado, 
and  certain  parts  of  Arizona  have  been  the  most  important  shipping 
areas  of  this  section. 

Section  3,  which  includes  the  important  eastern  and  southern 
cantaloupe-growing  states,  shows  no  tendency  towards  an  increase  in 
shipments,  although  there  may  have  been  an  increase  in  hauling  by 
truck,  especially  in  such  states  as  Delaware  and  Maryland,  which  are 
near  the  large  markets.  The  shipments  in  this  section  vary  more  from 
year  to  year  than  the  shipments  from  the  irrigated  sections. 

Section  4,  a  somewhat  scattered  group,  includes  the  most  important 
middle-western  states  and  Washington.  Arkansas  and  Indiana  furnish 
from  50  to  75  per  cent  of  the  carlot  shipments  of  this  section.  This 
group,  as  a  whole,  shows  a  slight  upward  trend  but  supplies  less  than 
10  per  cent  of  the  total  United  States  carlot  shipments. 

DISTRIBUTION   OF   CARLOT  SHIPMENTS  OF   CANTALOUPES 

BY  MONTHS 

The  earliest  shipments  of  cantaloupes  of  any  importance  in  the 
United  States  come  from  the  Imperial  Valley.  In  this  district,  which 
is  favored  by  high  temperatures,  special  attention  has  also  been  given 
to  obtaining  early  varieties  and  to  developing  cultural  practices  which 
will  bring  cantaloupes  to  market  at  an  early  date.  A  comparison  as  to 
time  of  shipments  of  the  various  sections  in  1925  is  shown  in  table  4 
and  figure  3.  Of  the  1503  carlots  of  cantaloupes  produced  and  shipped 
in  the  United  States  in  May,  1925,  all  but  26  came  from  Imperial 
Valley.  Texas  produced  the  other  26  carlots.  During  June  came  the 
peak  of  shipments  for  the  United  States  with  a  total  of  10,078  carlots, 
of  which  Imperial  Valley  shipped  9745.  In  July,  section  2,  the  rest 
of  the  southwestern  area,  took  the  lead  in  shipments  with  a  total  of 
4782  carlots,  which  was  its  peak  of  shipments.  Imperial  Valley 
shipped  2187  carlots;  section  4,  1667  carlots;  and  section  3,  1079. 
With  shipments  from  Imperial  Valley  practically  over  by  August,  the 
total  United  States  shipments  declined  to  6541  carlots.  Section  2 
supplied  3603  carlots,  and  sections  3  and  4  supplied  1871  and  1066 
respectively.  The  September  shipments  amounted  to  only  2126  carlots, 
of  which  Colorado  (section  2)  supplied  1757,  and  Nevada  (section  2) 
supplied  159.  In  October,  Colorado  shipped  141  carlots  and  Wash- 
ington (section  4)  shipped  4. 


Caelot  Shipments  of  Cantaloupes  by  Sections  of  Origin,  1925 


Thousand 
CoHo-f-s 


Section  I 
Imperial  l/oiley, 
California 


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Section  Z 

Stares  Included-  4 

Arizona 

Calif,  (omitting  L  Vol.) 

Colorado 

Nevada  2 

New  Mexico 

Texas 


Section  3 
States  inchded- 
De/avsare 
Maryland 
North  Carolina 
South  Carolina 
Georgia 
Other  States 


Section  4 

States  included  -    & 

Arkansas 

Illinois 

Indiana 

lo\*sa  _- 

Michigan 

Washing-tan 


Fig.  3. — Illustrating  sectional  totals  of  table  4.  The  earliest  important  ship- 
ments of  cantaloupes  come  from  Imperial  Valley  in  May.  In  June  they  exceed 
the  total  shipments  from  all  other  areas  for  any  month  of  the  season.  In 
July,  August,  and  September,  section  2,  the  southwestern  states,  furnishes  the 
bulk  of  the  shipments. 


12 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE  4 

Monthly  Carlot  Shipments  of  Cantaloupes  by  Sections  or  State;  of  Origin, 

1925 


April 

May 

June 

July 

Aug. 

Sept. 

Oct. 

Section  1: 
Imperial  Valley,  Calif 

1,477 

9,745 

2,187 

1 

Section  2: 
Arizona 

214 

2,824 
1,568 

19 

1,472 

1,324 

115 

372 

301 

California  (excluding 
Imperial  Valley) 

46 

1,757 

159 

Colorado 

141 

Nevada 

72 
202 
116 

New  Mexico 

Texas 

4 

26 

16 

7 

Total 

4 

26 

230 

4,782 

3,603 

1,969 

141 

Section  3: 
Delaware 

32 

40 

151 

603 

26 

227 

618 

1 

942 

52 

7 

Georgia 

76 

Maryland 

23 

North  Carolina 

South  Carolina 

3 
14 

Other  states 

258 

10 

Total 

93 

1,079 

1,871 

40 

Section  4: 
Arkansas 

10 

1,083 

66 

518 

110 
60 

569 
69 
98 

160 

Illinois 

Indiana 

Iowa 

13 

48 
56 

Michigan 

Washington 

4 

Total 

10 

1,667 

1,066 

117 

4 

Grand  total 

4 

1,503 

10,078 

9,715 

6,541 

2,126 

145 

Data  from  Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals,  1925.    p.  18.(1) 


BUL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  13 


FACTORS   AFFECTING   THE   TREND    IN    EARLY   SHIPMENTS   OF 
CANTALOUPES  IN  IMPERIAL  VALLEY 

During"  the  last  few  years  there  has  been  a  striking  increase  in  the 
earliness  of  ripening  of  cantaloupes  in  Imperial  Valley,  especially  if 
judged  by  the  time  when  the  first  carlot  was  shipped  (see  table  6). 
Thus  in  1922  the  first  carlot  was  shipped  May  31 ;  in  1923,  May  23 ; 
in  1924,  May  19;  in  1925,  May  7;  and  in  1926,  May  1.  The  increase 
in  early  ripening  of  cantaloupes  in  1925  and  in  1926  has  been 
attributed  largely  to  the  introduction  of  certain  new  varieties  such 
as  "HB,"  and  to  the  use  of  brush  shelter.  Undoubtedly  these  factors 
have  influenced  the  earliness  of  ripening,  but  at  least  two  other  factors 
have  helped  to  make  it  possible  to  ship  the  first  carlot  at  an  earlier 
date  during  the  past  few  years  than  during  the  earlier  history  of  the 
industry.  These  are,  first,  the  increase  in  acreage,  and  second,  the 
high  temperatures  which  have  prevailed  during  the  growing  period 
in  recent  years  compared  with  the  earlier  years. 

Increase  in  Acreage. — In  1913  there  were  6500  acres  of  cantaloupes 
in  the  Imperial  Valley  compared  with  35,301  acres  in  1926  (see  table 
10).  Obviously  it  is  possible  to  get  a  carlot  together  somewhat  earlier 
from  a  large  acreage  than  from  a  small  acreage.  This  factor  can  be 
corrected  by  comparing  shipments  from  year  to  year  on  the  basis  of 
carlots  to  1000  acres  or  some  other  common  base.  In  this  study, 
comparisons  are  made  on  the  basis  of  1  and  5  carlots  to  1000  acres. 

Increase  in  Temperature  during  the  Growing  Season  of  the  Later 
Years  Compared  with  the  Earlier  Years. — Temperature  records  from 
a  government  weather  station  in  Imperial  Valley  are  available  since 
1913.  The  early  cantaloupes  are  usually  planted  in  December  and 
early  January,  and  are  covered  with  oiled  paper  until  some  time  in 
March,  when  danger  from  frost  is  practically  past.  Growers  estimate 
that  in  1913  about  one-half  of  the  total  cantaloupe  acreage  was  covered 
in  this  way.  In  1926  nearly  two-thirds  of  the  total  acreage  was 
covered.  Under  these  conditions  the  temperatures  from  January  to 
May  of  each  year  undoubtedly  affect  the  time  of  ripening.  Table  5 
gives  the  mean  monthly  temperatures  from  January  to  May  for  the 
years  1913  to  1926. 

Fifty  degrees  Fahrenheit  is  approximately  the  lowest  temperature 
at  which  cantaloupes  make  any  growth.  By  adding  up  the  mean 
temperatures  above  50  degrees  for  January,  February,  March,  and 
April,  and  multiplying  this  sum  by  30  (the  average  number  of  days 


14 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


for  the  first  four  months)  we  can  obtain  a  close  approximation  to  the 
accumulated  daily  temperatures  above  50  degrees  from  January  1  to 
April  30.  Multiplying  the  mean  May  temperature  above  50  degrees 
by  30  gives  a  close  approximation  to  the  accumulated  temperature  to 
May  30.  This  gives  a  good  basis  for  comparing  the  temperatures  and 
earliness  of  ripening  for  the  years  1913  to  1926.  Table  6  shows  the 
accumulated  temperatures  and  various  rates  of  shipments. 


TABLE  5 
Mean  Monthly  Temperatures  in  Degrees  Fahrenheit,  Imperial  Valley, 

1913-1926 


Jan. 

Feb. 

March 

April 

May 

1913 

49.5 

56.4 

59.7 

69.0 

75.6 

1914 

54.7 

59.2 

64.9 

65.7 

75.4 

1915 

53.4 

61.8 

63.4 

69.0 

73.3 

1916 

52.2 

57.4 

67.8 

71.8 

75.8 

1917 

50.4 

57.4 

58.8 

65.8 

71.0 

1918 

53.7 

57.1 

64.7 

69.6 

73.0 

1919 

51.6 

56.0 

60.4 

71.8 

77.0 

1920 

55.6 

60.4 

61.0 

68.0 

76.4 

1921 

52.2 

59.2 

66.2 

67.0 

72.5 

1922 

49.3 

55.6 

58.8 

65.1 

77.1 

1923 

56.1 

56.8 

60.4 

67.8 

78.1 

1924 

53.6 

64.2 

66.0 

70.4 

79.8 

1925 

53.2 

61.2 

64.4 

70.8- 

78.6 

1926 

53.9 

61.5 

66.9 

73.0 

77.5 

Data  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climate-logical  Data,  California  Section  1913-1926.    Temperature 
records  for  1913  and  1914  for  Brawley,  1915-1925  for  Calexico,  and  for  1926  for  Imperial. 

A  close  study  of  table  6  shows  a  fairly  close  relation2  between 
accumulated  daily  temperatures  from  January  1  and  dates  of  ship- 
ments. That  is,  in  general,  low  temperatures  go  with  late  shipments, 
and  high  temperatures  go  with  early  shipments.  Comparing  columns 
II  and  V  it  will  be  noted  that  in  1913  the  low  accumulated  tempera- 
tures of  1038  degrees  Fahrenheit  are  associated  with  June  8,  the  date 
when  cantaloupe  shipments  in  Imperial  Valley  reached  the  rate  of 
one  car  to  1000  acres.  In  1917  the  temperatures  of  972  degrees  are 
associated  with  June  11,  and  in  1922  temperatures  of  864  degrees  and 
the  late  date  June  7  are  associated.  On  the  other  hand,  in  1916  the 
high  accumulated  temperatures  of  1608  degrees  are  associated  with  an 
early  date,  May  22.     The  temperature  of  1626  degrees  in  1924  are 


2  The  correlation  coefficient  between  accumulated  temperature  to  April  30  and 
number  of  days  after  that  until  shipments  reached  5  carlots  to  1000  acres  is  — 0.76. 


Bul.  419 


ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


15 


associated  with  May  24;  in  1925,  1488  degrees  are  associated  with 
May  22 ;  and  in  1926,  1659  degrees  goes  with  May  7. 

Summing   up    the    accumulated   temperatures    above    50    degrees 
Fahrenheit  from  January  1  to  the  date  when  shipments  reached  the 


TABLE  6 

Accumulated  Daily  Temperatures  above  50  Degrees  Fahrenheit  after 

January  1  of  Each  Year  to  Dates  Indicated,  and  Date;  of 

Various  Bates  of  Shipment 


Accumulated  daily 
temperatures  above  50 

Date  of  shipments 

degrees  Fahrenheit 

First 
carlot 

One  car 

to  1,000 

acres 

Five  cars 

To  Apr.  30 

To  May  30 

to  1,000 
acres 

I 

II 

III 

IV 

V 

VI 

1913 

1,038 

1,806 

June    4 

June    8 

June  11 

1914 

1,251 

2,013 

May  16 

May  24 

May  28 

1915 

1,350 

2,049 

May  25 

June    1 

June    3 

1916 

1,608 

2,382 

May  16 

May  22 

June    4 

1917 

972 

1,602 

June    4 

June  11 

June  15 

1918 

1,353 

2,043 

May  25 

May  30 

June    4 

1919 

1,194 

2,004 

May  26 

May  30 

June    2 

Mean  (1913-19) 

1,252 

1,986 

1920 

1,350 

2,142 

May  21 

May  27 

May  30 

1921 

1,338 

2,013 

May  21 

May  27 

May  29 

1922 

864 

1,677 

May  31 

June    7 

June  10 

1923 

1,281 

2,076 

May  23 

May  27 

May  29 

1924 

1,626 

2,520 

May  19 

May  24 

May  28 

1925 

1,488 

2,346 

May    7 

May  22 

May  28 

1926 

1,659 

2,484 

May    1 

May    7 

May  14 

Mean  (1920-26) 

1,372 

2,180 

Temperature  data  compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data  California  Section, 
1913-1926. 

Data  on  shipments  1913-1920  compiled  from  The  Packer,  May  28,  1921;  for  1921-1925  from  Summary 
of  western  cantaloupe  deals— 1925.  pp.  29,  30.(1)  For  1926  from  Preliminary  Review  of  the  1926  Imperial 
Valley  Cantaloupe  Deal.    p.  4.(3) 

rate  of  one  carlot  to  1000  acres  shows,  in  another  way,  the  relation 
between  temperature  and  earliness  of  shipments.  This  is  shown  in 
table  7. 

The  extreme  range  in  temperatures  accumulated  to  the  date  of 
shipment  is  from  1809  to  2320  degrees  Fahrhenheit,  which  occurred  in 
the  years  1926  and  1924,  respectively.  The  year  1926  is  marked  by 
the  fact  that  the  rate  of  shipments  of  one  carlot  to  1000  acres  was 


16  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

reached  with  the  lowest  accumulated  temperatures  of  any  year  of  the 
fourteen.  However,  1914  was  a  close  second  with  1820  degrees,  and 
1922  third  with  1871  degrees.  During  these  years  other  factors  than 
mean  temperature  which  affect  the  time  of  ripening  must  have  been 
exceptionally  favorable  to  early  ripening.  In  1926  the  new  early 
variety  undoubtedly  contributed  something  to  early  ripening.     The 

TABLE  7 

Kelation  Between"  Accumulated  Temperatures  above  50  Degrees  Fahrenheit 

and  earliness  of  shipments 

Accumulated  temperatures 
above  50  degrees  from  Jan.  1 
Date  when  shipments  reach  to  date,  not  including 

1  carlot  per  1,000  acres  day  of  shipment 

1913  June  8 2,017 

1914  May  24... 1,820 

1915  June  1 2,082 

1916  May  22 2,173 

1917  June  11 1,929 

1918  May30! 2,022 

1919  May  30 1,985 

1920  May  27 2,012 

1921  May  27 1,906 

1922  June  7 1,871 

1923  May  27 1,964 

1924  May  24 2,320 

1925  May  22 2,051 

1926  May  7 1,809 

Mean  accumulated  temperature 1,997 

Mean  1913-1919 2,004 

Mean  1920-1926 1,990 

Compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data,  California  Section,  1913-1926  reports. 

practice  of  brushing  a  part  of  the  fields,  and  the  freedom  from  cold 
heavy  winds  in  March  are  held,  by  some  growers,  to  be  contributing 
factors. 

The  extent  of  the  variations  from  the  mean  of  1997  degrees  in 
table  7  indicates  that  mathematically  the  chances  are  even  that  the 
date  when  cantaloupe  shipments  reach  the  rate  of  one  car  to  1000 
acres  will  come  within  the  time  when  the  accumulated  temperatures 
above  50  degrees  after  January  1  will  have  reached  the  sum  of  from 
1907  to  2087  degrees  as  long  as  cultural  methods  and  earliness  of  the 
chief  varieties  remain  about  as  they  are  at  present.  During  the  past 
fourteen  years,  eight  years  have  come  within  this  range. 


Bul.  419 


ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


17 


COMPETITION    OF    CANTALOUPES   WITH    OTHER    FRESH    FRUITS 

Cantaloupe  shipments  reach  their  peak  in  June  (see  fig.  4  and 
table  8).  Practically  all  of  the  shipments  during  this  month  come 
from  Imperial  Valley.  No  other  fresh  fruit  of  any  importance  reaches 
its  peak  of  shipments  at  this  time.  Fresh  peaches  do  not  compete 
seriously  with  cantaloupes  until  July,  when  the  total  shipments  of 

Monthly  Carlot  Shipments  of  Specified  Fresh  Fruits  in  the  United  States, 
Average  of  1918-1923,  and  1924  and  1925 

Car/a** 


Corrt-a/ocipee 


IOOOO 
Strawberries 

ZOOOO 

IOOOO 
Watermelons 

ZOOOO 

IOOOO 
Grapes  Q 

IOOOO 


Oranges 


Apples 


40000 

3O0OO 
ZOOOO 

to  OOO 

o 


/ 

v  a 

c  19 \ 

8-1 

9Z3 

s 

/ 

1 

J 

1 

w*BS£ 

— ■ 

/ 

/ 

19 

24 

I 

\ 

/ 

\ 

N 

***, 

/ 

f 

/ 

/ 

/ 

■— 

r-^ 

««— i 

/ 

\  \  \ 


I  I  f  \  % 


I 


19 

Z5 

\/ 

/ 

/ 

/ 

-^-- 

— — 

f 

4 

r 

1 

1 

K          I 

\     1 

Fig.  4. — Illustrating  table  8.  Cantaloupe  shipments  reach  their  peak  in 
June.  Peaches  and  watermelons  reach  their  peaks  in  July.  Grapes  and  apples 
reach  their  peaks  in  the  fall.  Thus  the  June  cantaloupes  are  relatively  free 
from  competition  with  other  important  fresh  fruits. 


peaches  usually  exceed  those  of  cantaloupes.  By  this  time,  however, 
most  of  the  Imperial  Valley  crop  has  been  marketed.  Strawberry 
shipments  reach  their  peak  in  May  (see  fig.  4  and  table  8)  although 
there  must  be  large  quantities  of  them  hauled  by  truck  in  the  east 
during  June.  The  average  carlot  shipments  during  June  from  1918 
to  1923  numbered  2691,  compared  with  7767  carlots  of  cantaloupes. 


18 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE   8 

Carlot  Shipments  of  Specified  Fresh  Fruits  in  the  United  States 

Average  1918-1923,  1924,  and  1925 


Fruits 


Cantaloupes.. 

Peaches 

Strawberries. 
Watermelons. 

Oranges 

Grapes 

Apples 


Cantaloupes.. 

Peaches 

Strawberries.. 
Watermelons. 

Oranges 

Grapes 

Apples 


Cantaloupes.. 

Peaches 

Strawberries.. 
Watermelons. 

Oranges 

Grapes 

Apples 


Average,  1918-1923 


Apr. 


1,504 
5,962 


May 


308 

603 

7,159 

1,133 

4,870 


June 


7,767 
3,117 
2,691 
8,669 
3,705 
12 
258 


July 


6,877 
8,387 

180 
9,489 
2,684 

417 
1,910 


Aug. 


5,377 
8,619 
48 
9,771 
1,959 
4,151 
3,527 


Sept. 


2,535 

8,195 

21 

1,893 

1,775 

17,180 

12,506 


Oct. 


299 

645 

2 

81 

1,351 

19,588 

35,276 


1924 


1,425 

9,788 


1,281 

28 

10,093 

65 

6,682 


2,295 


11,863 
1,873 

6,188 

6,602 

5,789 

7 

912 


8,311 

14,599 

764 

26,024 

3,162 

1,251 

2,362 


4,592 

13,683 

0 

10,470 

2,917 

7,447 

3,126 


2,697 

7,889 

0 

2,458 

2,604 

26,215 

14,641 


187 

1,322 

0 

120 

2,353 

28,892 

39,866 


1925 


2,976 
5,714 


1,480 
335 

7,387 

571 

4,986 


1,525 


10,078 

4,730 

1,047 

10,959 

3,321 

60 

889 


10,006 

16,879 

31 

16,430 

2,003 

1,267 

2,667 


6,455 
9,505 
0 
10,643 
1,734 
5,261 
3,958 


2,023 

7,334 

0 

2,254 

1,719 

34,422 

19,082 


113 

288 

0 

41 

1,175 

33,555 

41,323 


Data  on  cantaloupes,  peaches,  strawberries  and  apples  for  1918-1923  compiled  from  U.  S.  Bur.  of 
Agr.  Econ.  Statistical  Bui.  7:6,  16,  25,  34;  for  1924  and  1925,  including  also  watermelons  and  oranges, 
from  U.  S.  D.  A.  Crops  and  Markets  Monthly  Sup.  2:196,  197,  234,  235,  272,  306,  338,  370. 

Data  on  watermelons,  1921-1923,  and  for  oranges  and  grapes  for  1919-1923  compiled  from  U.  S.  D.  A. 
Weather  Crops  and  Markets  4:225,  305,  420,  602,  651. 

Data  on  watermelons  1919,  1920  from  West,  Carl  J.,  and  Lewis  B.  Flohr.  Market  statistics  U.  S. 
D.  A.  Bui.  982:242. 

Data  on  grapes  compiled  from  U.  S.  Bur.  of  Agr.  Econ.  unpublished  data. 

During  the  years  1918  to  1923  the  carlot  shipments  of  watermelons 
in  May  averaged  1133,  compared  with  308  carlots  of  cantaloupes 
for  the  same  period.  During  1924  and  1925  the  cantaloupe  shipments 
in  May  exceeded  the  watermelon  shipments  by  approximately  1000 
carlots,  but  these  were  unusually  warm  years  for  Imperial  Valley,  as 
is  shown  in  table  6.  During  June  the  watermelon  shipments  usually 
exceed  cantaloupe  shipments  and  reach  their  peak  in  July  or  August. 
Peach  shipments  from  1918  to  1923  exceeded  cantaloupe  shipments 


BUL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


19 


during  May,  July,  August,  and  September.  During  June  cantaloupe 
shipments  were  more  than  twice  as  high  as  the  peach  shipments. 

Grapes  do  not  come  on  the  market  in  large  quantities  until  August, 
and  hence  compete  only  with  late  cantaloupes. 

Orange  shipments  have  an  earlier  peak  than  cantaloupes  but  are 
available  at  practically  all  times  and  at  all  places.  The  competition 
with  cantaloupes  is,  therefore,  probably  more  serious  than  is  indicated 
by  the  low  shipments  during  the  cantaloupe  season. 

Apple  shipments  do  not  reach  their  peak  until  late  in  the  fall,  when 
the  shipments  exceed  the  combined  shipments  of  all  of  the  fruits 
shown  in  figure  4  and  table  8  The  number  of  carlots  of  apples  shipped 
is  not  a  good  index  of  apple  consumption  because  of  the  possibility 
of  storing  the  crop.  They  fill  a  somewhat  different  place  in  the  diet 
of  most  people,  however,  and  hence  are  not  serious  competitors  of 
cantaloupes. 

Other  crops  such  as  mixed  melons,  plums  and  prunes,  cherries, 
and  grapefruit,  show  relatively  small  shipments  compared  with 
cantaloupes,  and  hence  can  compete  only  to  a  limited  extent  with 
cantaloupes. 

TABLE  9 

Number  of  Markets  Reached  and  Carlot  Shipments  of  Imperial  Valley 
Cantaloupes,  1914-1925 


1914 

1915 

1916 

1917 

1918 

1919 

Number  of  carlots  shipped. ... 
Number  of  cities  receiving 
over  ten  carlots 

4,446* 

691 

176$ 

4,729 

56 

157 

4,617 

5,007 

4,398 

7,831 

74f 
213f 

Total  number  of  cities  re- 
ceiving over  one  carlot 

1920 

1921 

1922 

1923 

1924 

1925 

Number  of  carlots  shipped. ... 
Number  of  cities  receiving 
over  ten  carlots 

9,015 

84 
231 

10,709 1 
94 
262 

12,243 
113 
331 

12,997 
112 
315 

15,930 
136 
390 

14,509 
118 

Total  number  of  cities  re- 
ceiving over  one  carlot 

373 

•  The  Packer.    May  28,  1921. 

t  Marketing  and  distribution  of  western  muskmelons  in  1915.    U.  S.  D.  A.  Bui.  401:21,  22.(4) 

t  Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals— 1925,  pp.  52,  53. (1^ 


20 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


INCREASES  IN   NUMBER  OF  MARKETS   FOR   IMPERIAL  VALLEY 
CANTALOUPES 

With  the  rapid  increase  in  the  carlot  shipments  of  cantaloupes 
from  Imperial  Valley  there  has  come  a  need  for  extending  the  markets. 
That  the  relative  increase  in  the  number  of  cities  reached  since  1919 
very  nearly  kept  pace  with  the  increase  in  the  number  of  carlots 
shipped  during  the  same  period  can  be  seen  by  a  glance  at  figure  5 
and  table  9.  In  1919,  7831  carlots  were  shipped  out  of  Imperial 
Valley,  and  in  1925,  14,509  carlots  were  shipped — an  increase  of  85 
per  cent.  The  total  number  of  cities  receiving  more  than  one  carlot 
of  cantaloupes  from  Imperial  Valley  in  1919  was  213,  and  in  1925  it 
was  373,  an  increase  of  75  per  cent.  Cities  receiving  more  than  ten 
carlots  numbered  74  in  1919,  and  118  in  1925,  an  increase  of  60  per 
cent.  This  indicates  a  fair  growth  of  sales  in  markets  already  estab- 
lished and  a  fair  expansion  into  new  markets. 


Carlot  Shipments  of  Cantaloupes  from  Imperial  Valley  and  Number  of 
Cities  Reached  with  Carlots 

No.  of    No.  o-f 


Cor/ofis    Cities 

30  OOO       300 
20  OOO      ZOO 

Tb+aJ 

Num. 

bar    o 

e  at 

'*%- 

^ 

mm 

^^+ 

^ 

10  OOO        too 

*£& 

.___- 

<S' 

^> 

**? 

>+ 

6  OOO          <i>0 
A OOO         40 

Z  OOO        20 

/  ooo      to 
i 

£&* 

Mt 

i.  or  c 

'frtes  l 

On  tO 

Car/on 

h9 

~NumL 
lmp& 

ten  an 
r~/o/  V 

c  Car 

?&por 

i-ed 

3 

5 

& 
$ 

*           < 
1           < 

\ 

5          | 
5          I 

\           1 

\             ! 

3        i 
i        I 

I    1 

Fig.  5. — Illustrating  table  9.  The  number  of  carlots  of  cantaloupes  shipped 
from  Imperial  Valley,  1914-1925,  shows  a  fairly  constant  percentage  increase  from 
year  to  year.     The  number  of  cities  reached  increased  only  slightly  less  rapidly. 


BUL.  419]         ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


21 


EFFECT  OF  AVERAGE  PRICE  PAID  FOR  IMPERIAL  VALLEY  CANTA- 
LOUPES ONE  YEAR  ON  THE  ACREAGE  OF  THE  NEXT  YEAR 

Most  products  respond  to  price  changes.  That  is,  an  increase  in 
price  leads  to  an  increase  in  supply  and  a  decrease  in  price  leads  to 
a  decrease  in  supply.  The  time  required  for  this  response  depends 
largely  upon  the  nature  of  the  product.  Tree  fruits,  which  do  not 
come  into  bearing  for  five  or  ten  years  after  planting,  naturally 
respond  more  slowly  to  changes  in  price  than  do  annual  crops  like 
cantaloupes.  The  response  in  the  case  of  cantaloupes  is  best  shown  by 
the  changes  in  acreage  the  year  after  a  change  in  price. 


Relative  Purchasing  Power  of  Imperial,  Valley  Can 
and  Acreage,  1911-1926 

TALOUPES,   1910-1925, 

Acres      Purch- 
Poorer 

1 

/ 

~t 
1 

pa        no 

\ 

/ 

-Pure 

hcrsi 

ig  f 

'owe 

- 

h 

v\ 

t 

\ 
\ 

1 

\ 

/ 

\\ 

f  1 

V  \ 

// 

Z4         90 

fl 

V 

1/ 

1 

1 

- 

1 

r 

1 
I 

1 

Acr* 

>oc?t 

N 

1 

1 

\ 

7 

1 
1 

\ 

/ 

* 

/ 

o 

Yr-s.   -Tar-  Par.  P.    f9IO       II 
YrS.  ibr  Acrea3el9lt       fZ 


£3        Z4-      /9Z5      Z6 
Z4-    t9ZS    Z6 


Fig.  6. — Illustrating  table  10.  The  relation  between  the  purchasing  power 
and  the  acreage  of  the  following  year  is  not  so  clearly  shown  during  the  early 
years  when  the  cantaloupe  acreage  was  rapidly  expanding.  Since  1920,  how- 
ever, years  of  high  purchasing  power  have  been  followed  consistently  by 
increased  acreages,  and  years  of  low  purchasing  power  by  decreased  acreages. 


22 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


Figure  6  and  table  10  show  the  relative  purchasing  power  of 
Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes  for  "Standard  45  V  from  1910  to  1926. 
The  price  data  for  1910  to  1919  are  taken  from  the  weekly  quotations 
in  the  Pacific  Rural  Press.  Simple  averages  of  the  weekly  quotations 
were  taken  to  represent  the  average  price  for  the  season.  The  price 
data  for  1920  to  1922  and  for  1925  and  1926  were  taken  from  the 
New  York  Journal  of  Commerce  Daily.  For  1923  and  1924  daily 
prices  were  obtained  from  the  Market  News  Service,  New  York  Office 
of  the  Bureau  of  Agricultural  Economics,  United  States  Department 
of  Agriculture.  The  price  at  New  York  each  day  for  the  years  1920 
to  1926  was  multiplied  by  the  carlot  receipts  of   Imperial  Valley 


'    TABLE  10 

Prices  and  Purchasing  Power  of  Imperial,  Valley  Cantaloupes  and  the 
Acreage  of  the  Following  Year, 


Year 

Price  per 

standard 

crate 

Index 
number 

Purchasing 

power 

in  cents 

Relative 

purchasing 

power 

Year 

Acreage  in 

Imperial 

Valley 

I 

II 

III 

IV 

V 

VI 

VII 

1910 

$2.29 
2.13 
1.91 
2.25 
2.21 
1.44 
2.16 
2.16 
3.06 
3.64 
4.51 
3.78 
2.71 
3.74 
2.92 
4.05 
3.32 

103 

95 
101 
102 
100 
103 
130 
181 
198 
210 
231 
150 
152 
157 
153 
162 
153 

222 
224 
189 
221 
221 
140 
166 
119 
155 
173 
195 
252 
178 
238 
191 
250 
217 

120 

121 

102 

119 

119 

76 

90 

64 

84 

94 

90 

116 

82 

109 

88 

115 

100 

1911 

1912 
1913 
1914 
1915 
1916 
1917 
1918 
1919 
1920 
1921 
1922 
1923 
1924 
1925 
1926 
1927 

4,500 

1911 

5,500 

1912 

6,500 
8,200 
8,300 
9,200 
13,800 

1913 

1914 

1915 

1916 

1917 

10,900 

1918 

1919 

14,000 
21,370 
21,350 

1920 

1921 

31,050 

1922 

24,863 

1923 

31,075 

1924 

27,559 

1925 

35,301 

1926         

Column  II.  Years  1910-1919  simple  averages  of  weekly  quotations  compiled  from  Pacific  Rural 
Press,  current  issues.  For  1920-1922  and  1925,  1926,  weighted  average  prices  based  on  quotations  in 
New  York  Journal  of  Commerce,  Daily,  current  issues;  1923  and  1924  weighted  average  prices  based  on 
mimeographed  reports  of  U.  S.  Bur.  of  Agr.  Econ.  W<W)  Weights  for  1921-1925  from  summary  of  western 
cantaloupe  deals,  1925,  pp.  29,  30;  (l)  and  for  1926  from  Preliminary  review  of  the  1926  Imperial  Valley 
cantaloupe  deal.^ 

Column  III.  Years  1910-1922  the  index  number  is  taken  from  Cornell  Univ.  Agr.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui. 
416:5. (8)  Years  1923-1925  from  Cornell  Univ.,  Farm  Economics.  34:441. (9)  The  index  number  for 
1926  was  estimated. 

Column  IV.     Column  I  divided  by  Column  II. 

Column  V.     Average  of  1920-1925  purchasing  power  for  each  series  taken  as  a  base  equal  to  100. 

Column  VII.  Years  1911-1921  data  from  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupe  deal,  1923,  p.  24.U0)  Years 
1922-1925  Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals,  1925,  p.  14. (1^  Year  1926  Preliminary  review  of  the 
1926  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupe  deal.(3) 


BuL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  23 

cantaloupes  at  New  York  for  that  day,  and  the  sum  of  these  products 
was  divided  by  the  carlot  receipts  for  the  season  to  get  the  weighted 
average  price  for  that  season.  Thus  weighted  average  prices  were 
obtained  for  1920  to  1926,  which  are  more  representative  of  the  results 
for  each  season  than  the  simple  averages  used  for  the  earlier  period. 

Due  to  the  fact  that  the  value  of  the  dollar  changed  from  year  to 
year  during  the  period  1910  to  1926,  it  is  necessary,  in  order  to  make 
comparisons  easily,  to  correct  for  the  changing  value  of  the  dollar  by 
dividing  the  average  price  for  each  year  by  the  index  number  of  the 
United  States  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics.  The  quotients  represent 
the  purchasing  power  of  cantaloupes  in  terms  of  the  wholesale  prices 
of  the  four  hundred  or  more  commodities  used  in  making  up  the  index 
number.  In  order  to  compare  San  Francisco  and  New  York  prices, 
the  purchasing  power  is  reduced  to  a  relative  basis  for  each  price 
series  (see  column  V,  table  10),  using  the  average  of  1920  to  1925  as 
a  base  equal  to  100. 

The  last  years,  1920  to  1925,  of  relative  purchasing  power  and  the 
acreages  of  cantaloupes  one  year  later  show  a  high  correlation.  That 
is,  years  of  high  relative  purchasing  power  of  cantaloupes  have  been 
followed  consistently  by  increased  acreages  the  following  year,  and 
years  of  low  relative  purchasing  power  have  been  followed  by 
decreased  acreages.  Thus  in  1920  the  relative  purchasing  power  of 
cantaloupes  was  90,  and  the  1921  acreage,  21,350.  In  1921  the  relative 
purchasing  power  went  up  to  116  and  the  1922  acreage  increased  to 
31,050.  In  1922  the  relative  purchasing  power  was  82  and  the  1923 
acreage  decreased  to  24,863. 

During  the  earlier  years  the  relation  of  relative  purchasing  power 
to  the  acreage  of  the  following  year  was  not  so  marked.  Perhaps, 
during  the  early  periods,  economies  in  production  encouraged  expan- 
sion of  the  cantaloupe  industry  in  spite  of  some  declines  in  relative 
purchasing  power.  The  prices,  too,  were  simple  averages  and,  there- 
fore, may  not  always  have  given  a  true  picture  of  the  returns  to  the 
growers. 

The  degree  of  relationship  between  purchasing  power  of  a  crate 
of  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes  on  the  New  York  market  and  the 
acreage  of  cantaloupes  in  Imperial  Valley  the  following  year  for  the 
period  1920  to  1926  can  be  calculated  and  expressed  mathematically 
in  what  is  known  as  the  correlation  coefficient.  A  correlation  coefficient 
of  1.0  indicates  perfect  relationship.  That  is,  a  given  change  in  one 
variable  (in  this  case  relative  purchasing  power  of  a  crate  of  canta- 
loupes), if  perfectly  correlated  with  the  acreage  of  the  following  year, 
would  always  be  followed  the  next  year  by  the  same  change  in  acreage. 


24  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

The  correlation  coefficient  between  the  purchasing  power  of  a  standard 
crate  of  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes  based  on  New  York  prices,  and 
the  acreage  of  cantaloupes  the  following  year  in  Imperial  Valley  for 
the  years  1920  to  1926  was  0.98.3  A  similar  calculation  using  pur- 
chasing power  based  on  f.o.b.  Imperial  Valley  prices,  gave  a  correla- 
tion coefficient  of  0.86.  Calculating  the  purchasing  power  to  the 
acre  by  multiplying  yield  to  the  acre  and  purchasing  power  to  the 
crate,  and  correlating  with  the  acreage  of  the  following  year  gave  a 
correlation  coefficient  of  0.96  when  based  on  New  York  weighted 
prices,  and  a  correlation  coefficient  of  0.93  when  based  on  f.o,b. 
Imperial  Valley  weighted  prices.  This  indicates — for  the  records  are 
based  on  too  limited  a  period  to  prove  positively — that  New  York 
prices  of  cantaloupes  have  a  greater  effect  on  the  acreage  of  canta- 
loupes the  next  year  than  f.o.b.  Imperial  Valley  prices. 

On  the  basis  of  the  relationship  that  has  existed  since  1920  between 
purchasing  power  of  cantaloupes  and  the  acreage  of  the  following 
year,  one  would  expect  a  smaller  acreage  in  1927  than  was  planted 
in  1926.  One  would  logically  expect  the  mildew  infestation  of  1926 
to  further  discourage  extensive  planting  for  1927.  The  extent  to 
which  the  mildew  infestation  of  1926  is  likely  to  affect  the  cantaloupe 
acreage  in  1927  cannot  be  estimated  on  the  basis  of  previous  experi- 
ence because  this  was  the  first  widespread  infestation  in  the  history 
of  the  industry.  Control  measures  developed  in  1926  will  undoubtedly 
affect  the  acreage  planted  in  1927. 


FACTORS  AFFECTING  THE  F.O.B.  PRICE  OF  IMPERIAL  VALLEY 

CANTALOUPES 

Approximately  20  to  25  per  cent  of  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes 
are  sold  f.o.b.  local  shipping  point.  The  time  required  to  ship  a  car 
from  Imperial  Valley  to  New  York,  for  example,  is  about  12  days. 
The  buyers  try  to  estimate  the  demand  conditions  that  will  prevail 
when  the  cars  arrive  at  their  destination  so  that  the  cantaloupes  may 
be  sold  at  a  profit.  The  sellers  also  estimate  what  the  demand  con- 
ditions will  be  and  usually  consign  their  shipments  if  they  judge  that 
they  will  be  able  to  get  a  higher  net  price  in  that  way  than  by  selling 
f.o.b.  local  shipping  point.  Naturally,  with  the  uncertainty  of  the 
supply  and  demand  conditions  of  the  future,  it  would  not  be  possible 
for  the  actual  prices  from  day  to  day,  f.o.b.  Imperial  Valley,  always 
to  correspond  with  the  prices  which  would  represent  the  true  supply 


3  Based  on  first  differences,  a  method  of  correlation  described  in  Mills,  F.  C, 
Statistical  Methods,  p.  428.(5)  (Superscript  figures  in  parenthesis  indicate  corre- 
sponding numbers  in  literature  cited  at  the  end  of  this  bulletin.) 


BUL,  419]         ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


25 


and  demand  conditions  at  the  time  when  the  cantaloupes  arrive  at 
the  consuming  centers.  The  prices  during  the  early  part  of  the  season 
are  particularly  erratic.  Likewise,  toward  the  end  of  the  season,  when 
the  quality  of  cantaloupes  often  becomes  poor,  the  prices  again  become 


Relation  Between  Prices  per  Standard  Crate   (Salmon  Tint  45  's) 
F.O.B.  Imperial  Valley  and  Daily  Shipments,  1922-1926 


JTO 

laze 

— 

'--«:<. 

i. 

v  • 

/* 

tuol   Pr 

A 

' 

- 

"*"-« s. 



i  1323 

.V  ,rilc#«il  Price 


Carlos      SHtppe*     Oo 

<u 

"*'■" 

I9ZA 

,» 

•  \ 

« 

«. 

' 

•**" 

c 

"S-**^ 

.' 

' 

r*~ 

v^ 

rlmotm 

I9Z5 

•  \ 

'• 

.«-* 

^LL 

D        1 

' 

f 

u_ 

^____ 

1       1 

D"- 

"*" ■*** 

"*"  *" 

" 

\ 

.«** 

,9ze 

.  *. 

S^  " 

". .. 

• 

f 

■-■ 

^ESt-n 

M«/ 

"to 

Fig.  7. — Illustrating  tables  11-15.  Each 
dot  represents  one  day's  shipments  in  car- 
lots,  read  on  the  horizontal  scale,  and  accom- 
panying price  read  on  the  vertical  scale. 
The  line  dd'  represents  the  average  relation- 
ship between  daily  shipments  and  represen- 
tative daily  prices.  Such  factors  as  changes 
in  temperatures  at  consuming  centers, 
changes  in  quality  of  cantaloupes,  changes 
in  prices  of  competing  products,  and  incor- 
rect estimates  of  demand  by  buyers  and 
sellers  cause  the  dots  to  vary  from  the  aver- 
age line  dd'. 


erratic;  that  is,  they  do  not  seem  to  bear  any  consistent  relation  to 
the  quantities  shipped.  However,  after  the  first  week  or  two  of  ship- 
ments for  a  period  of  five  or  six  weeks,  there  is  usually  a  period  during 
which  prices  bear  a  fairly  consistent  relation  to  shipments. 


26 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


In  figure  7,  scatter  diagrams  have  been  made  of  the  daily  shipments 
during  1922,  1923,  1924,  1925,  and  1926,  and  the  f.o.b.  prices  that 
prevailed  on  each  day.  Each  dot  represents  one  day's  shipments 
(number  of  carlots)    read  horizontally  on  the  lower  scale,  and  the 

TABLE  11 

Belatton  Between  Prices  per  Standard  Crate  (Salmon  Tint  45 's) 
F.O.B.  Imperial  Valley  and  Daily  Shipments,  1922 


Dates 

Number  of 
carlots 
shipped 

Actual 
prices 

Estimated 
prices  based 
on  average 
relations  of 
columns  II 
and  III 

Errors  of 

estimate 

(III  minus  IV) 

Maximum  daily 

temperatures 

in  New  York 

in  degrees 

Fahrenheit 

(3  days'  lag) 

I 

II 

III 

IV 

V 

VI 

June    8 

110 

186 
251 
242 
255 
217 
213 
214 
256 
302 
339 
385 
418 
473 
520 
526 
465 

$4.38 
4.00 
3.25 
2.88 
2.38 
2.25 
2.13 
2.13 
2.13 
2.13 
1.95 
1.80 
1.58 
1.53 
1.53 
1.33 
1.30 

$4.90 
3.01 
2.28 
2.36 
2.25 
2.61 
2.65 
2.64 
2.24 
1.92 
1.72 
1.53 
1.42 
1.27 
1.16 
1.15 
1.29 

$-.52 
+  .99 
+  .97 
+  .52 
+  .13 
-.36 
-.52 
-.51 
-.11 
+  .21 
+  .23 
+  .27 
+  .16 
+  .26 
+  .37 
+  .18 
+  .01 

76 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25* 

77 
87 
87 
85 
86 
86 
76 
70 
74 
76 
70 
77 
77 
82 
69 
71 
73 

26 

27 

28 

29 

30 

July     1 

2*... 

556 
647 
617 
523 
492 
452 

1.13 

1.08 

1.03 

.90 

.90 

.90 

1.09 
.95 
.99 
1.15 
1.22 
1.32 

+  .04 
+  .13 
+  .04 
-.25 
-.32 
-.42 

75 

80 
80 
76 
69 
82 
79 

3 

408 

.85 

1.45 

-.60 

86 

*  No  quotations. 

Columns  II  and  III.     Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals,  1925,  pp.  22,  29,  30. (1^ 

Prices— average  of  the  range. 

Column  VI.    Compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data,  New  York  Section,  1922, 

representative  price  for  that  day's  sales  read  on  the  vertical  scale. 
For  example,  the  first  dot  in  figure  7a,  beginning  at  the  top  and 
reading  from  left  to  right,  represents  110  carlots  (see  the  horizontal 
scale  below)  and  the  price  for  that  day  of  $4.38  (note  reading  on  the 


BUL.  419]         ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


27 


vertical  scale).  The  actual  shipments  and  corresponding  prices  are 
given  in  table  11.  Tables  12,  13,  14,  and  15  give  the  data  for  the 
other  graphs  in  figure  7. 

TABLE  12 

Relation  Between  Prices  per  Standard  Crate  (Salmon  Tint  45 's) 

F.O.B.  Imperial,  Valley  and  Daily  Shipments,  1923 


Dates 


May  28. 

29. 

30. 

31. 

June    1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 
10. 
11. 
12. 
13. 
14. 
15. 
16. 
17. 
18. 
19. 
20. 
21. 
22. 
23. 
24. 
25. 
26. 
27. 
28. 
29. 
30. 


Number  of 
carlots 
shipped 


152 
224 
275 
262 
292 
254 
258 
210 
181 
156 
158 
167 
188 
239 
250 
310 
316 
393 
395 

430 
519 
531 
502 
457 
424 
374 
352 
377 
358 
363 
302 
263 


Actual 
prices 


III 


S3. 38 
2.88 
2.63 
2.13 
2.38 
2.38 
2.38 
2.25 
2.38 
2.50 
2.63 
2.55 
2.58 
2.58 
2.40 
2.30 
2.08 
2.00 
2.00 
1.63 

1.63 
1.48 
1.43 
1.33 
1.45 
1.63 
1.63 
1.63 
1.50 
1.80 
1.68 
1.88 
1.93 


Estimated 
prices  based 
on  average 
relations  of 
columns  II 
and  III 


IV 


$3.84 
2.83 
2.30 
2.06 
2.12 
2.00 
2.15 
2.14 
2.38 
2.58 
2.79 
2.77 
2.69 
2.53 
2.22 
2.17 
1.94 
1.92 
1.71 
1.70 

1.63 
1.47 
1.45 
1.50 
1.57 
1.64 
1.75 
1.81 
1.74 
1.79 
1.78 
1.96 
2.11 


Errors  of 

estimate 

(III  minus  IV) 


;-.46 

+  .05 
+  .33 
+  .07 
+  .26 
+  .38 


23 
11 
00 
08 
16 
22 
11 
05 
18 


+  .13 
+  .14 
+  .08 
+  .29 
-.07 

.00 
+  .01 
-.02 
-.17 
-.12 
-.01 
-.12 
-.18 
-.24 
+  .01 
-.10 
-.08 
-.18 


Maximum  daily 

temperatures 

in  New  York 

in  degrees 

Fahrenheit 

(3  days'  lag) 


VI 


79 
81 

78 
68 
80 
76 
62 
78 
88 
84 


78 
69 
66 
74 
72 
76 
66 
83 
75 
75 
83 
79 
88 
95 
93 
82 
86 
91 
95 
91 
81 


Columns  II  and  III.    Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals,  1925,  pp.  22,  29,  30. ^ 

Prices — average  of  the  range. 

Column  VI.    Compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data,  New  York  Section,  1923. 


28 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE   13 

Kelatton  Between  Prices  per  Standard  Crate  (Salmon  Tint  45  's) 

F.O.B.  Imperial  Valley  and  Daily  Shipments,  1924 


Dates 

Number  of 
carlots 
shipped 

Actual 
prices 

Estimated 
prices  based 
on  average 
relations  of 
columns  II 
and  III 

Errors  of 

estimate 

(III  minus  IV) 

Maximum  daily 

temperatures 

in  New  York 

in  degrees 

Fahrenheit 

(3  days'  lag) 

I 

II 

III 

IV 

V 

VI 

May  25 

67 

$3.38 

$4.54 

$-1.16 

62 

26 

118 

3.38 

3.10 

+  .28 

69 

27 

149 

3.13 

2.65 

+  .48 

71 

28 

167 

2.63 

2.45 

+  .18 

60 

29 

197 

2.43 

2.19 

+  .24 

62 

30 

205 

2.38 

2.14 

+  .24 

60 

31 

206 

2.43 

2.13 

+  .30 

70 

June    1 

208 

2.43 

2.12 

+  .31 

69 

2 

210 

2.08 

2.10 

-.02 

62 

3 

199 

2.05 

2.18 

-.13 

67 

4 

198 

2.00 

2.19 

-.19 

68 

5 

275 

2.05 

1.75 

+  .30 

70 

6 

332 

1.93 

1.54 

+  .39 

73 

7 

352 

1.78 

1.48 

+  .30 

71 

8 

338 
359 

1.75 
1.53 

1.52 
1.46 

+  .23 
+  .07 

74 

9 

68 

10 

362 

1.48 

1.46 

+  .02 

75 

11 

480 

1.43 

1.20 

+  .23 

66 

12 

516 

1.28 

1.15 

+  .13 

70 

13 

542 

1.18 

1.11 

+  .07 

66 

14 

532 

1.13 

1.12 

+  .01 

59 

15 

476 

1.15 

1.21 

-.06 

60 

16 

447 

1.18 

1.26 

-.08 

62 

17 

73 

18 

376 

1.15 

1.42 

-.27 

83 

19 

358 

1.23 

1.47 

-.24 

80 

20 

338 

1.38 

1.52 

-.14 

75 

21 

317 

1.53 

1.59 

-.06 

81 

22 

80 

23 

438 

1.68 

1.28 

+  .40 

68 

24 

486 

1.50 

1.19 

+  .31 

84 

25 

512 

1.13 

1.15 

-.02 

86 

26 

583 

1.08 

1.06 

+  .02 

82 

27 

561 

.90 

1.08 

-.18 

83 

28 

452 

.90 

1.25 

-.35 

87 

29 

367 

.90 

1.44 

-.54 

78 

30 

356 

1.05 

1.47 

-.42 

70 

Columns  II  and  III.    Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals,  1925,  pp.  22,  29,  30. a) 

Prices— average  of  the  range. 

Compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data,  New  York  Section,  1924. 


Btjl.419 


ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


29 


TABLE   14 

Belatton  Between  Prices  per,  Standard  Crate  (Salmon  Tint  45  *s) 
F.O.B.  Imperial  Valley  and  Daily  Shipments,  1925 


Dates 


I 

May  25.. 

26.. 
27.. 
28.. 
29.. 
30.. 
31.. 
June    1.. 

2.. 

3.. 

4.. 

5.. 

6.. 

7.. 

8.. 

9.. 
10.. 
11.. 
12.. 
13.. 
14.. 
15.. 
16.. 
17.. 
18.. 
19.. 
20.. 
21.. 
22.. 
23.. 
24.. 
25.. 
26.. 
27.. 
28.. 
29.. 
30.. 


Number  of 
carlots 
shipped 


II 


63 

89 
131 
170 
224 
303 
346 
361 
350 
395 
409 
399 
402 
414 
444 
507 
495 
539 
509 
426 
359 
331 
276 
250 
211 
203 
186 
146 
180 
202 
226 
278 
292 
353 
386 
377 
318 


Actual 
prices 


III 


$3.50 
3.25 
3.00 
2.75 
2.55 
2.38 
2.13 
1.75 
1.88 
2.03 
2.05 
2.13 
2.13 
2.18 
2.05 
1.75 
1.50 
1.50 
1.50 
1.55 
1.58 
1.98 
2.33 


63 

00 

13 

13 

13 

00 

75 

2.70 

2.25 

2.00 

1.63 

1.63 

1.55 

P.  38 


Estimated 
prices  based 
on  average 
relations  of 
columns  II 
and  III 


IV 


$4.35 
3.71 
3.10 
2.75 
2.42 
2.10 
1.98 
1.94 
1.97 
1.86 


83 
85 
85 
82 
76 
66 


1. 
1. 

1. 

1. 

1. 

1. 

1.68 

1.61 

1.66 

1.80 

1.95 

2.02 

2.20 

2.30 

2.49 

2.53 

2.64 


Errors  of 

estimate 

(III  minus  IV) 


I-.85 
-.46 
-.10 
.00 
+  .13 
+  .28 
+  .15 
-.19 
-.09 
+  .17 
+  .22 
+  .28 
+  .28 
+  .36 
+  .29 
+  .09 
-.18 
-.11 
-.16 
-.25 
-.37 
-.04 
+  .13 
+  .33 
+  .51 
+  .60 
+  .49 
+  .18 
+  .32 
+  .21 
+  .29 
+  .06 
-.14 
-.33 
-.25 
-.51 


Maximum  daily 
temperatures 
in  New  York 


Fahrenheit 
(3  days'  lag) 


VI 


69 
92 
64 
51 
65 
69 
73 
63 
73 
81 
88 
85 
92 
95 
96 
96 
94 
75 
73 
88 
73 
71 
73 
81 
87 
79 
73 
91 
79 
82 
80 
80 
77 
73 
80 
79 
78 


Columns  II  and  III.     Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deal,  1925,  pp.  22,  29,  30. (1^ 

Prices — average  of  the  range. 

Column  VI.    Compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data,  New  York  Section,  1925. 


30 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE   15 

Belatton  Between  Prices  per  Standard  Crate  (Salmon  Tint  45 's) 
F.O.B.  Imperial  Valley  and  Daily  Shipments,  1926 


Dates 


I 

May  11.. 
12.. 
13.. 
14.. 
15.. 
16.. 
17.. 
18.. 
19. 
20.. 
21.. 
22.. 
23.. 
24.. 
25.. 
26.. 
27.. 
28.. 
29.. 
30.. 
31.. 
June    1.. 

2... 

3.. 

4.. 

5... 

6... 

7... 

8... 

9... 
10... 
11... 
12... 
13... 
14... 
15... 
16... 


Number  of 
carlots 
shipped 


II 


123 
131 
173 
197 
212 
230 
260 
272 
292 
301 
302 
324 
316 
379 
328 
261 
253 
265 
297 
305 
323 
305 
286 
293 
273 
265 
256 
264 
281 
284 
295 
285 
301 
296 
279 
237 
208 


Actual 
prices 


III 


$2.88 
2.88 
2.63 
2.38 
2.33 
2.33 
2.30 
2.08 
2.08 
2.00 
1.93 
1.93 
1.93 
1.93 
1.68 
1. 
1. 
1. 
1. 
1. 
1. 
1. 
1.68 
1.58 
1.68 
1.63 
1.63 
1.63 
1.80 
2.00 
2.00 
2.00 
1.88 
1.63 
1.63 
1.58 
1.83 


63 
63 
73 
70 
68 
68 
68 


Estimated 
prices  based 
on  average 
relations  of 
columns  II 
and  III 


Errors  of 

estimate 

(III  minus  IV) 


IV 


$2.77 
2.68 
2.34 
2.19 
2.11 
2.03 
1.91 
1.87 
1.80 
1.77 
1.77 
1.71 
1.73 
1.58 
1.70 
1.92 
1.93 
1.89 
1.79 
1.76 
1.71 
1.76 
1.82 
1.80 
1.86 
1.89 
1.92 
1.89 
1.84 
1.83 
1.79 
1.82 
1.77 
1.79 
1.84 
2.00 
2.13 


+  .11 
+  .20 
+  .29 
+  .19 
+  .22 
+  .30 
+  .39 
+  .21 
+  .28 
+  .23 
+  .16 
+  .22 
+  .20 
+  .35 
-.02 
-.29 
-.30 
-.16 
-.09 
-.08 
-.03 
-.08 
-.14 
-.22 
-.18 
-.26 
-.29 
-.26 
-.04 
+  .17 
+  .21 
+  .18 
+  .11 
-.16 
-.21 
-.42 
-.30 


Maximum  dai  y 

temperatures 

in  New  York 

in  degrees 

Fahrenheit 

(3  days'  lag) 


VI 


61 
57 
69 
66 
71 

58 
78 
79 
70 
68 
62 

61 
59 
70 
69 
62 
62 


66 
67 
78 
64 
61 

62 
64 

75 

76 

77 

76 


Columns  II  and  III.     Preliminary  review  of  the  1926  cantaloupe  deal.(3) 

Column  VI.    Compiled  from  current  issues  of  New  York  Journal  of  Commerce,  Daily. 


Bul.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  31 

After  locating  in  figure  7  the  shipment  for  each  day  and  its  corre- 
sponding price  as  given  in  table  11,  a  definite  course  in  these  dots 
can  be  noted.  The  line  dd'  represents  an  average  course  taken  by 
this  group  of  dots.  It  can  be  drawn  fairly  accurately  freehand,  or  it 
can  be  calculated  mathematically  as  has  been  done  in  this  case.  Line 
dd'  in  figure  7a  represents  the  average  relationship  during  1922  for 
the  period  shown  in  table  11  between  the  daily  shipments  of  canta- 
loupes and  their  corresponding  f.o.b.  prices.  If  no  other  factor  than 
the  number  of  carlots  shipped  daily  affected  the  prices,  we  would 
expect  all  of  the  dots  to  be  located  on  the  line  dd'.  Thus  with  110 
carlots  shipped  daily,  the  expected  price  is  $4.90  for  a  standard  crate, 
and  with  302  carlots  daily  the  expected  price  is  $1.92.  The  fact  that 
the  actual  prices  do  not  in  many  cases  fall  on  the  line  dd'  indicates 
that  other  factors  than  the  number  of  carlots  shipped  affect  prices. 
The  extent  to  which  these  other  factors  affect  prices  is  indicated  by 
the  degree  of  scatter  of  the  dots  about  the  line  dd'.  The  extent  to 
which  shipments  are  related  to  prices  is  indicated  by  the  correlation 
index4  of  — 0.8835  which  shows  that  approximately  78  per  cent  of 
the  variations  in  price  for  June  8  to  July  3,  1922,  are  explained  by 
the  variations  in  shipments.  The  remaining  22  per  cent  of  the 
variations  in  price  are  due  to  some  extent  to  such  factors  as  quality 
of  cantaloupes,  temperatures  at  consuming  centers,  prices  of  compet- 
ing products,  and  psychological  factors  affecting  dealers. 

During  the  1923  cantaloupe  shipping  season  in  Imperial  Valley, 
prices  (see  table  12)  were  lower  during  the  first  four  days  than  during 
the  corresponding  period  of  1922.  The  fifth  day,  or  June  1,  1923,  the 
price  was  $2.38  with  262  carlots  shipped,  and  for  the  corresponding 
day,  June  12,  1922,  the  price  was  the  same,  $2.38,  with  255  carlots 
shipped.  The  estimated  price  for  June  1,  1923,  was  $2.12,  and  for 
June  12,  1922,  it  was  $2.25.  For  the  remainder  of  the  period  of  1923 
the  prices  were  higher  than  for  1922.  It  is  interesting  to  note  that 
column  V  in  tables  11,  12,  13,  14,  and  15,  which  gives  the  difference 
between  actual  prices  (column  III)  and  estimated  prices  (column  IV), 
shows  that  actual  prices  usually  remain  above  or  below  the  estimated 
prices  for  periods  of  from  four  to  ten  days.  This  may  in  part  be  due 
to  the  lack  of  knowledge  on  the  part  of  buyers  and  sellers  as  to  what 
price  will  equate  supply  and  demand  when  the  supply  is  known. 
Until  the  response  of  the  consumer  to  a  given  supply  is  obtained,  the 
prices  paid  by  dealers  alternate  above  and  below  the  price  which  will 
induce  the  consumer  to  buy  the  quantities  placed  on  the  market. 


*  Based  on  logarithms  of  prices  and  shipments.     The  method  is  described  in 
Mills,  F.  C,  Statistical  Methods,  pp.  453-484.(5) 


32  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

The  1924  season,  shown  by  table  13  and  figure  7c,  was  charac- 
terized by  the  low  prices  as  the  season  advanced.  This  was  probably 
due  to  low  temperatures  at  the  terminal  markets  (see  table  13,  column 
VI).  Comparing'  the  line  dd',  figure  7b,  with  the  line  dd',  figure  7c, 
we  note  that  the  latter,  which  represents  the  average  relationship 
between  shipments  and  f.o.b.  prices  for  1924,  falls  considerably  below 
that  of  1923  as  the  number  of  carlots  shipped  increases.  Thus  at 
350  carlots  in  1924  the  estimated  price  is  $1.49,  while  for  1923  the 
estimated  price  is  $1.81. 

The  price  trend  during  the  1925  season  (fig.  7d,  table  14)  was  very 
similar  to  that  of  1923,  except  that  during  the  heavy  shipping  period 
the  price  of  a  standard  crate  in  1925  averaged  approximately  $0.17 
higher  than  in  1923.  The  scatter  of  actual  prices  about  the  line  dd', 
figure  7d,  representing  estimated  prices,  is  greater  than  during  the 
three  preceding  years.  This  indicates  that  factors  other  than  ship- 
ments were  relatively  more  important  in  1925  than  during  1922,  1923, 
and  1924.  The  correlation  index  between  prices  and  shipments  for 
1925,  as  shown  in  table  14,  is  — 0.8369,  while  for  each  of  the  previous 
years  the  correlation  index  was  above  — 0.88. 

The  prices  for  given  daily  shipments  in  1926  (see  fig.  7e  and 
table  15)  were  considerably  lower  than  in  1925.  The  earliness  of  the 
season,  the  low  temperatures  at  the  consuming  centers  in  the  east,  and 
the  low  quality  of  the  cantaloupes,  probably  accounted  for  much  of 
the  difference.  There  was  also  less  uniformity  in  the  relation  between 
shipments  and  prices  than  for  the  preceding  four  years,  the  correlation 
index  amounting  to  only  — 0.6932. 

A  careful  comparison  of  a,  b,  c,  d,  and  e  of  figure  7,  and  of  tables 
11,  12,  13,  14,  and  15,  shows  that  there  is  considerable  variation  in 
prices  from  year  to  year.  Because  of  this  variation  from  year  to  year 
it  does  not  seem  advisable  to  attempt  a  general  estimate  of  prices  of 
cantaloupes  f.o.b.  Imperial  Valley  based  on  shipments,  and  the  average 
relations  that  have  prevailed  between  shipments  and  prices  during 
the  period  1922  to  1926.  However,  there  is  considerable  similarity 
between  the  relationships  of  price  and  carlot  shipments  in  1923  and 
1925.  It  is  probable  that  a  similar  relationship  will  prevail  during  a 
future  season  that  has  as  favorable  temperatures  at  the  main  markets 
as  prevailed  during  these  two  seasons.  The  years  1924  and  1926 
represent  the  results  associated  with  seasons  of  low  temperatures  at 
the  main  markets.  Future  seasons  with  similar  conditions  may  be 
expected  to  show  similar  relationships  between  shipments  and  prices. 


BuL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


33 


FACTORS  AFFECTING  THE   PRICES  OF   IMPERIAL  VALLEY 
CANTALOUPES  IN  NEW  YORK 

New  York  receives  close  to  20  per  cent  of  the  Imperial  Valley 
cantaloupe  shipments,  and  supply  and  demand  conditions  there  are 
representative  of  many  of  the  large  eastern  markets.  Daily  receipts 
fluctuate  widely  during  the  week.  As  a  rule,  they  are  high  on  Monday 
and  low  on  Saturday,  but  these  dairy  variations  are  irregular.  Weekly 
averages  of  receipts  and  prices  were  therefore  taken.  As  in  the  case 
of  f.o.b.  Imperial  Valley  prices  and  shipments,  the  relation  between 
price  and  supply  at  the  beginning  and  end  of  the  season  was  often 
erratic.    The  first  week  of  each  season  usually  had  one  or  two  days  of 

Actual  and  Estimated  Prices  for  Imperial  Valley  Cantaloupes  on  the 

New  York  Market  for  the  Years  1921-1926 

Price  estimates  based  on  the  average  relations  of  receipts,  temperature, 

and  week  of  the  season  to  prices 


1 1 1 1 1 1 

PSr/c*|     1 

— —    Esi-imcrl 

ed    Price 

1 

X         ,„___. 

\        r 

L     -V      *,- 

,TO             \>w                               V,                              \-^-\ 

V         --W         ^ 

%5h       ^s*      V* 

f>       . 

TimtWkt  t 

of  Season 

Vrars   - 


Z    3  4. 
I9ZI 


Z    3    4    S   S 
/&S2 


■3     t     S    & 
/9Z3 


!   z    3   a-  s   « 

I9R4- 


/    Z    3    A.    S 
/9Z5~ 


i  z  3  a  s  « 
/see 


Fig.  8. — Illustrating  table  16.  There  is  a  tendency  for  actual  prices,  where 
they  do  not  agree  closely  with  estimated  prices,  to  alternate  above  and  below 
the  estimated  prices.  This  may,  in  part,  be  due  to  the  general  tendency  on 
the  part  of  dealers  to  go  from  one  extreme  to  the  other  in  judging  the  demand 
of  the  final  consumer. 


no  receipts,  and  was  not  included.  The  following  six  weeks  in  each 
season,  1921  to  1926,  were  included.  The  remainder  of  each  season 
of  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes,  if  any,  was  omitted  because  of  the 
irregular  receipts  and  lack  of  uniformity  in  the  quality  of  the  canta- 
loupes that  often  come  on  the  market  toward  the  end  of  the  season. 
Due  to  the  fact  that  the  value  of  the  dollar  changed  to  some  extent 
during  the  period  1921  to  1926,  it  was  necessary  to  correct  for  these 
changes  in  studying  the  relation  between  prices  and  the  factors  affect- 
ing prices  for  the  whole  period.5     The  estimated  prices,  however,  in 

5  Changes  in  the  value  of  the  dollar  from  year  to  year  were  adjusted  by  divid- 
ing all  prices  by  the  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics  index  number,  1910-1914  base,  and 
then  converting  the  estimated  prices  back  to  the  original  value  of  the  dollar  for 
each  year,  1921-1926. 


34 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


TABLE   16 

Belation  of  New  York  Prices  for  Imperial,  Valley  Cantaloupes  to 

New  York  Beceipts,  Temperature,  and  Time 


Date, 
week  ending 

Average 

number  of 

carlots 

daily 

Temperature 
in  degrees 
Fahrenheit 
(3-day  lag) 

Time- 
week  of  the 
season 

Actual 
price 

Estimated 
price 

Index 
No. 

I 

II 

III 

IV 

V 

VI 

VII 

1921— June  12 

13 

76 

1 

$6.44 

$6.45 

18 

21 

81 

2 

4.72 

5.56 

25 

30 

87 

3 

3.77 

5.02 

July     2 

40 

82 

4 

4.34 

4.02 

9 

55 

87 

5 

3.61 

3.78 

16 

46 

83 

6 

3.15 

3.48 

150 

1922— June  10 

2 

81 

1 

10.30 

12.52 

17 

6 

77 

2 

9.09  • 

7.72 

24 

27 

75 

3 

4.44 

4.32 

July     1 

37 

79 

4 

3.40 

3.97 

8 

66 

78 

5 

3.23 

3.13 

15 

66 

82 

6 

2.04 

3.12 

152 

1923— June    9 

11 

82 

1 

8.11 

7.83 

16 

41 

71 

2 

3.92 

4.03 

23 

48 

82 

3 

4.23 

4.19 

30 

50 

88 

4 

5.52 

4.33 

July    7 

62 

75 

5 

3.08 

3.19 

14 

63 

81 

6 

2.59 

3.20 

157 

1924— May  31 

3 

65 

1 

8.20 

8.58 

June    7 

15 

71 

2 

5.56 

5.34 

14 

45 

68 

3 

3.67 

3.32 

21 

56 

74 

4 

2.61 

3.24 

28 

72 

81 

5 

2.69 

3.23 

July    5 

68 

75 

6 

3.18 

2.77 

153 

1925— May  31 

5 

70 

1 

8.50 

8.44 

June    6 

11 

79 

2 

7.66 

7.08 

13 

43 

88 

3 

4.75 

4.94 

20 

61 

77 

4 

3.92 

3.52 

27 

60 

80 

5 

3.59 

3.54 

July    4 

77 

77 

6 

3.75 

2.92 

162 

1926— May  15 

7 

62 

1 

6.50 

6.32 

22 

8 

70 

2 

6.04 

6.35 

29 

36 

65 

3 

3.79 

3.38 

June    5 

64 

67 

4 

2.30 

2.78 

12 

60 

65 

5 

2.90 

2.63 

19 

66 

76 

6 

3.29 

2.85 

153* 

*  Estimated  for  June,  1926. 

Columns  II  and  V.  Years  1921,  1922,  1925,  1926,  compiled  from  New  York  Journal  of  Commerce, 
Daily,  current  issues.  Years  1923  and  1924  from  Review  of  season  for  California  cantaloupes  on  New 
York  mar ket.(6)-(7) 

Column  III.  Years  1921-1925  compiled  from  U.  S.  Weather  Bureau  Climatological  Data— New 
York  Section.    Year  1926  compiled  from  New  York  Journal  of  Commerce,  Daily. 

Column  VI.  Estimated  prices  based  on  average  relation  between  columns  II,  III,  IV,  and  V.  The 
method  of  multiple  correlation  is  used  which  is  described  in  Mills,  F.  C,  Statistical  Methods,  pp.  485- 
515;^5-)  and  Wallace,  H.  A.,  and  Geo.  W.  Snedecor.    Correlation  and  machine  calculation,  pp.  18-47.^^ 

Column  VII.  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics  index  number,  converted  to  1910-1914  base.  Cornell 
University,  Farm  Economics.    34:441. 


BUL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  35 

column  VI,  table  16,  and  shown  by  the  broken  line  in  figure  8,  have 
been  converted  back  to  dollars  of  the  year  in  which  they  appear,  so 
that  they  are  comparable  with  the  actual  prices  paid  as  shown  in 
column  V  of  table  16. 

In  the  case  of  New  York  prices  several  factors  besides  receipts 
have  had  measurable  effects  upon  them.  These  factors  are  tempera- 
ture and  the  time  of  the  season.  That  is,  high  temperatures  increase 
demand,  other  factors  remaining  constant,  but  toward  the  end  of  the 
season  the  cumulative  effect  of  cantaloupe  receipts,  or  perhaps  to  some 
extent  the  increased  quantities  of  other  fresh  fruits  and  vegetables 
which  arrive  as  the  season  progresses,  cause  lower  prices  for  canta- 
loupes than  would  be  expected  on  the  basis  of  receipts  alone.  The 
combined  correlation,  or  multiple  correlation  index,  as  it  is  technically 
called,  of  receipts,  temperatures,  and  time  of  season  with  price  for  the 
period  1921  to  1926  was  0.94  as  compared  with  a  possible  multiple 
correlation  index  of  1.0.  Table  16  shows  the  average  daily  receipts  of 
cantaloupes  at  New  York,  maximum  temperatures  three  days  earlier, 
time,  actual  and  estimated  price  per  standard  crate  (salmon  tint  45 's), 
and  the  index  number.  The  maximum  temperatures  prevailing  three 
days  before  a  given  day  were  more  closely  related  to  the  price  of  that 
day  than  concurrent  temperatures  or  temperatures  one  day  earlier. 
In  this  study  temperatures  three  days  earlier  were  taken.  On  the 
basis  of  the  average  relationships  between  receipts,  temperature,  time, 
and  price,  the  estimated  prices  were  calculated,  shown  in  table  16, 
column  VI,  and  by  the  broken  line  in  figure  8. 

A  close  study  of  figure  8  and  columns  V  and  VII  of  table  16 
indicates  that  the  actual  prices  for  each  season  as  a  whole  are  very 
close  to  the  estimated,  but  for  individual  weeks  occasional  deviations 
of  actual  from  estimated  prices  occur,  amounting  to  10  and  20  per 
cent.  In  1921,  during  the  first  week,  the  actual  price  was  $6.44,  com- 
pared with  an  estimated  price  of  $6.45.  In  other  words,  on  the  basis 
of  the  average  relations  that  prevailed  during  the  cantaloupe  seasons 
of  1921  to  1926,  between  receipts,  temperatures,  time  of  the  season, 
and  prices,  a  price  of  $6.45  would  have  been  expected,  and  the  actual 
price  paid  was  only  one  cent  below  that,  or  $6.44. 

During  the  second  and  third  weeks  the  actual  prices  went  con- 
siderably below  the  estimated  prices.  The  fourth  week  of  the  1921 
season  was  marked  by  actual  prices  which  were  above  the  estimated 
prices.  During  the  fifth  and  sixth  weeks,  however,  the  actual  prices 
were  again  slightly  below  the  estimated. 


36  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

The  1922  cantaloupe  season  in  New  York  was  marked  by  alter- 
nating periods  in  which  actual  prices  were  first  below  the  estimated 
then  above  during  the  second  week,  practically  agreeing  the  third 
week,  below  during  the  fourth  and  sixth  weeks,  but  agreeing  the  fifth 
week.  Prices  of  oranges  were  high  during  1922,  which  might  lead 
one  to  expect  higher  than  average  prices  for  early  cantaloupes.  Pos- 
sibly the  fact  that  the  Imperial  Valley  acreage  of  cantaloupes  was 
almost  50  per  cent  greater  than  the  previous  year  may  have  led  dealers 
to  pay  lower  than  normal  prices  during  the  first  week  in  continual 
anticipation  of  heavy  shipments  later.  During  the  second  week,  with 
shipments  still  continuing  light,  the  actual  price  was  18  per  cent  above 
the  estimated  as  compared  with  18  per  cent  below  the  estimated  for 
the  first  week.  During  the  next  three  weeks  actual  and  estimated 
prices  agreed  fairly  well.  During  the  last  week  the  actual  price  was 
more  than  one  dollar  below  the  estimated.  This  may  have  been  due  to 
the  unusually  heavy  cantaloupe  shipments  from  other  parts  of  the 
United  States. 

The  first  three  weeks  of  1923  receipts  of  cantaloupes  at  New  York 
resulted  in  actual  prices  very  close  to  the  estimated  prices.  The  fourth 
week,  however,  actual  prices  exceeded  estimated  prices  by  $1.19.  Two 
weeks  later  actual  prices  averaged  $0.61  below  the  estimated.  No 
explanation  can  be  found  for  the  unusually  high  price  during  the 
fourth  week.  To  be  sure,  the  temperature,  lagged  three  days,  was 
unusually  high  (88  degrees  Fahrenheit)  and  might  have  had  more 
than  a  proportional  effect  on  demand,  but  the  third  week  in  1921  a 
temperature  of  87  degrees  Fahrenheit  was  accompanied  by  an  actual 
price  $1.25  below  the  estimated.  The  third  week  in  1925  a  tempera- 
ture of  88  degrees  was  accompanied  by  an  actual  price  $0.19  below 
the  estimated.  These  results  are  not  consistent  enough  to  indicate  any 
unusual  effect  of  exceptionally  high  temperatures  on  prices. 

In  1924  the  agreement  between  actual  and  estimated  prices  was 
close  during  the  first  three  weeks.  The  fourth  and  fifth  weeks  resulted 
in  low  actual  prices  compared  with  estimated  prices.  This  condition 
was  reversed  in  the  sixth  week. 

During  1925  the  actual  prices  in  the  second,  fourth,  and  sixth 
weeks  were  above  the  estimated,  and  only  during  the  third  week  was 
the  actual  price  slightly  below  the  estimated.  A  simple  average  for 
the  six  weeks  shows  that  the  actual  price  was  $0.29  above  the  estimated 
price.     Several  factors  may  have  contributed  to  the  favorable  prices. 

1.  The  quality  of  cantaloupes  was  generally  very  good. 

2.  An  advertising  campaign  had  been  carried  on  to  reach  the 
consumer. 


BUL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  37 

3.  The  production  of  early  cantaloupes  in  the  United  States  as  a 
whole  was  only  5,304,000  crates  in  1925  compared  with  6,210,000  in 
1924. 

4.  Prices  of  oranges  were  relatively  high  in  1925.  However,  they 
were  still  higher  in  1922,  a  year  in  which  the  simple  average  of  the 
actual  price  was  $0.38  below  the  simple  average  of  the  estimated  price. 

In  1926  the  actual  and  estimated  prices  agreed  fairly  closely  for 
the  first  three  weeks.  During  the  fourth  week  the  actual  price  was 
below  the  estimated,  which  situation  was  reversed  during  the  fifth 
and  sixth  weeks.  The  unprofitable  deal  of  1926  was  not  due  to 
unusually  low  prices,  but  to  the  low  yields. 

In  general,  the  agreement  between  the  estimated  prices  of  Imperial 
Valley  cantaloupes  on  the  New  York  market  based  upon  the  average 
relationship  of  receipts,  temperatures,  and  time  of  the  season  to  price 
for  the  seasons  1921  to  1926  is  fairly  close.  About  88  per  cent  of  the 
variations  in  price  are  explained  by  these  three  factors. 

Some  of  the  factors  affecting  prices  of  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupes 
are: 

1.  The  prices  and  quality  of  competing  fruits  and  vegetables. 

2.  Weather  factors  in  addition  to  temperature  such  as  humidity 
and  sunlight.  For  example,  a  clear,  bright  day  with  low  humidity 
would  undoubtedly  stimulate  demand  for  cantaloupes  more  than  a 
cloudy  day  with  high  humidity  having  the  same  maximum  tempera- 
ture in  the  shade  as  taken  by  the  weather  stations. 

3.  The  buying  power  of  the  consumers  is  important  and  may 
change  at  times  so  as  to  affect  the  demand  for  cantaloupes. 

4.  Dealers  cannot  estimate  correctly  at  all  times  what  the  demand 
will  be,  hence  actual  prices  will  fluctuate  above  and  below  the  price 
which  will  keep  supply  and  demand  in  equilibrium. 

Some  factors  affecting  cantaloupe  prices  cannot  be  expressed  in 
figures,  others  affect  the  price  only  occasionally  so  that  no  reliable 
average  of  their  effect  can  be  obtained.  Besides  the  factors  noted 
above  and  other  factors  which  may  be  present  that  also  affect  the 
demand  for  cantaloupes,  there  are  defects  in  the  data  and  in  the 
methods  of  calculating  the  estimated  prices  which  would  prevent 
securing  a  perfect  correlation  of  actual  and  estimated  prices,  even 
though  all  of  the  factors  affecting  demand  were  known  and  could  be 
definitely  measured.  No  market  reporting  service,  however  perfect, 
can  express  in  one  figure  an  absolutely  representative  price  for  all 
of  the  sales  taking  place  in  one  day  or  week.  All  that  can  be  hoped 
for  is  a  quoted  price  which  represents  a  close  approximation  to  the 
representative  price.     With  the  accumulation  of  more  accurate  data 


38  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

from  year  to  year  and  improved  methods  of  analysis,  it  will  be  possible 
in  the  future  to  make  more  accurate  estimates  of  the  prices  that  are 
justified  with  a  given  supply  and  the  known  factors  affecting  demand 
than  have  been  possible  so  far.  However,  the  successful  dealer  will 
not  depend  entirely  upon  the  analysis  of  the  important  measurable 
factors  that  have  affected  prices  in  the  past,  but  will  always  be  on  the 
lookout  for  new  factors,  though  they  may  be  of  only  a  temporary 
nature.  A  close-up  view  of  any  business  will  reveal  many  factors 
which  cannot,  or  at  least,  have  not  been  reduced  to  figures,  but  which 
do  affect  prices.  These  need  to  be  evaluated  and  require  the  exercise 
of  the  dealer's  best  judgment.  No  statistical  analysis  of  past  data 
can  be  depended  on  as  an  absolute  guide  for  estimating  future  prices, 
but  it  is  valuable  if  supplemented  by  the  judgment  of  one  who  is  in 
close  touch  with  the  business. 


HOW  TO   USE  THE   RESULTS  OF  THE   PAST  SIX  YEARS   IN 
ESTIMATING   FUTURE  PRICES 

It  must  be  clearly  understood  at  the  beginning  that  if  we  use  the 
average  results  of  the  three  factors  related  to  prices  described  in  the 
previous  section  in  estimating  the  price  of  cantaloupes  on  the  New 
York  market  for  any  time  in  the  future,  say  1927,  we  are  assuming 
that  these  factors,  receipts,  temperatures,  and  time  will  continue  to 
affect  prices  as  they  have  done  during  the  past  six  years.  There  is  a 
fair  degree  of  probability  that  the  relationships  will  be  the  same  as 
they  have  been,  but  there  is  no  certainty  that  this  will  be  the  case. 
Having  the  assumption  in  mind,  we  may  proceed  to  the  task  of  esti- 
mating cantaloupe  prices  in  New  York  for  the  season  1927. 

In  order  to  abbreviate  the  description,  it  is  advantageous  to 
designate  each  factor  used  by  a  letter.  The  following  symbols  are 
used  throughout  this  discussion : 

X  =  estimated  purchasing  power  1910-1914  base 
A  =  average  daily  receipts  in  carlots 

b  =  deviations  from  the  average  1921-1926  maximum  tempera- 
ture for  the  week,  lagged  three  days 
C  =  time  in  weeks  of  the  season. 

In  order  to  convert  purchasing  power,  X,  into  1927  dollars  it  will 
be  necessary  to  estimate  the  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics  index  number 
for  1927.  This  can  be  done  more  accurately  before  the  cantaloupe 
season  opens  than  at  the  time  this  publication  is  being  written.  How- 
ever, since  the  price  level  has  been  fairly  stable  since  1921,  we  are  not 
likely  to  err  much  in  estimating  an  index  number  of  155  for  1927. 


BUL.  419]         ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  39 

Estimating  Prices  by  Means  of  the  Logarithmic  Regression  Equa- 
tion.— Those  readers  who  have  some  knowledge  of  logarithms  as  given 
in  algebra  texts  will  understand  the  statement  of  the  equation  for 
estimating  purchasing  power  of  cantaloupes  in  the  following  form: 
log  ~X  =  0.9686  —  0.3036  log  A  +  0.0071&  —  0.0210C.  Those  readers 
who  prefer  to  use  prepared  tables  with  corrections  for  changes  in 
temperatures  will  find  their  use  in  estimating  prices  explained  in  the 
next  section  (pp.  41-44).  The  reason  for  using  the  logarithms  of 
receipts  and  of  estimated  purchasing  power,  i.e.,  log  A  and  log  X,  is 
that  changes  in  receipts  in  terms  of  absolute  numbers  and  changes  in 
purchasing  power  in  terms  of  absolute  numbers  do  not  show  a  straight - 
line  relationship,  but  changes  in  receipts  expressed  as  ratios  and 
changes  in  purchasing  power  expressed  as  ratios  do  show  a  straight- 
line  relationship,  and  are  therefore  more  easily  handled  in  a  corre- 
lation analysis  in  terms  of  logarithms  than  in  terms  of  the  original 
numbers.    The  following  illustrations  show  the  use  of  this  equation. 

Illustration  1.  On  the  basis  of  the  above  equation,  let  us  estimate 
the  price  for  a  certain  week  in  1927,  assuming  a  definite  set  of  con- 
ditions. Take,  for  example,  the  first  week,  and  assume  that  shipments 
from  Imperial  Valley  and  diversions  indicate  average  receipts  of  ten 
carlots  a  day  for  the  first  week,  and  an  average  maximum  temperature 
lagged  three  days  (from  Thursday  of  the  previous  week  to  Wednesday 
of  the  week  of  which  the  receipts  are  based)  of  70  degrees  Fahrenheit. 
The  values  of  the  factors  in  the  equation  would  then  be 

A  =  10  and  log  A  =  1 

b  =  — 2.6.  Since  the  average  temperature  for  the  first  week  of 
receipts  was  72.6°  F6  the  temperature  of  70°  is  —2.6° 
deviation  from  the  average. 

0  =  1,  the  first  week  of  receipts. 
Substituting  these  numbers  in  the  equation : 

log  X=  0.9686  —  0.3036  log  A  +  0.00716  —  0.0210C 
gives  the  following  : 

log  X  =  0.9686—  (0.3036X1)  +  (0.0071X— 2.6)  —  (0.0210X1). 
Solving,  we  obtain : 

log  X  =  0.9686  —  0.3036  —  0.0185  —  0.0210 

log  X  =  0.6255. 

Looking  up  the  anti-log  of  0.6255,  we  obtain  X  =  $4.22.  This 
represents  the  purchasing  power  of  a  standard  crate.    Assuming  now 


6  The  average  maximum  temperatures  in  degrees  Fahrenheit  were :   1st  week, 
6     " 
79.0. 


40  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT   STATION 

an  index  number  of  155  for  1927  would  give  a  price,  expressed  in 
1927  dollars,  of  $4.22  multiplied  by  1.55,  or  $6.54.7  Thus  if  the  same 
relationships  prevail  between  price  and  receipts,  temperature,  and 
time,  in  1927,  as  have  prevailed  from  1921  to  1926,  the  most  probable 
price  for  a  standard  crate  of  cantaloupes  (salmon  tint  45  's),  for  the 
conditions  assumed,  would  be  $6.54.  The  above  method  was  used  in 
calculating  the  estimated  prices  shown  in  table  16  and  in  figure  8. 

Illustration  2.  Let  us  assume  that  shipments  indicate  average 
daily  receipts  at  New  York  during  the  fifth  week  (Monday  to  Satur- 
day) of  70  carlots  and  that  maximum  temperatures  from  the  previous 
Thursday  to  Wednesday  of  this  week  will  average  85  degrees  Fahren- 
heit. What  will  be  the  most  probable  price  based  on  the  relationship  of 
the  previous  six  years?  Using  the  same  symbols  as  in  the  previous 
illustration  we  have : 

A  =  10  carlots  and  log  A  =  1.8451 

&  =  85°F  —  77.6°,8  or  7.4° 

C  =  5. 

Substituting  in  the  equation  : 

log  X  =  0.9686  —  0.3036  log  A  +  0.00715  —  0.0210C 
we  obtain 

log T=  0.9686—  (0.3036  X  1.8451)  +  (0.0071  X  7.4) 
—  (0.0210  X  5) 

log  X  =  0.9686  —  0.5602  +  0.0525  —  0.1050 

log  X  =  0.3559. 


7  The  following  change  in  the  method  of  applying  the  above  equation  which  has 
been  suggested  by  Professor  C.  M.  Titus  of  this  Experiment  Station,  combines  the 
adjustment  for  the  change  in  the  index  number  with  the  regression  equation,  and 
hence  reduces  by  one  the  number  of  calculations  necessary  in  arriving  at  the 
estimated  price. 

Since  log  X  multiplied  by  1.55  equals  the  estimated  price  in  1927  dollars,  we 
may  add  the  logarithm  of  1.55  to  the  right  side  of  the  equation.  The  equation 
then  will  read: 

log  of  estimated  price  in  1927  dollars  = 

0.9686  +  log  1.55  —  0.3036  log  A  +  0.0071&  —  0.0210C 
log  of  estimated  price  in  1927  dollars  t= 

0.9686  +  0.1903  —  0.3036  log  A  +  0.0071&  —  0.0210C 
log  of  estimated  price  in  1927  dollars  = 

1.1589  —  0.3036  log  A  +  0.00716  —  0.0210C. 
Applying  this  equation  to  the  conditions  assumed  in  illustration  1,  we  secure 
log  of  estimated  price  in  1927  dollars  = 

1.1589— (0.3036  X  1)  + (0.0071  X  —2.6)  — (0.0210  X  1) 
=  1.1589  —  0.3036  —  0.0185  —  0.0210 
=  0.8158. 
Looking  up  the  anti-log  of  0.8158  we  obtain  $6.54 — the  estimated  price  per 
standard  crate  expressed  in  1927  dollars. 

8  The  average  maximum  temperature  for  the  fifth  week  as  given  in  footnote  6. 


BUL.  419]      ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OP  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  41 

Looking  up  the  anti-log  of  0.3559,  we  obtain  ~X=  $2.27.  This 
represents  the  purchasing  power  of  a  standard  crate.  Assuming  now 
an  index  number  of  155  for  1927,  as  in  the  previous  illustration,  we 
arrive  at  the  price,  expressed  in  1927  dollars,  of  $2.27  multiplied  by 
1.55,  or  $3.52. 

Illustration  3.  It  would  be  of  interest  to  know  what  the  estimated 
price  would  be  for  the  same  week  and  temperatures,  but  with  an 
average  of  60-carlot  receipts  daily  instead  of  70.  With  this  change 
our  equation  would  be 

log ~X  =  0.9686—  (0.3036  X  1.7782)  +  (0.0071  X  7.4) 

—  (0.0210  X  5) 
log  X  =  0.9686  —  0.5399  +  0.0525  —  0.1050 
log  X  =  0.3762. 

Looking  up  the  anti-log  of  0.3762,  we  obtain  X  =  $2.38.  Assuming 
an  index  number  of  155  for  1927  would  give  a  price,  expressed  in  1927 
dollars,  of  $2.38  multiplied  by  1.55,  or  $3.69.  This  price  is  $0.17 
higher  per  standard  crate  than  would  be  expected  with  receipts 
averaging  70  carlots  daily,  instead  of  60. 

Estimating  Prices  by  Means  of  Tables  and  Charts  with  Corrections 
for  Changes  in  Temperatures. — Because  of  the  difficulty  that  may  be 
encountered  by  some  readers  in  using  the  equation  for  estimating 
prices  as  described  in  the  preceding  sections,  tables  17  and  18  and 
figure  9  are  added.  These  give  a  number  of  estimated  prices  based 
upon  the  relationships  expressed  in  the  equation.  It  can  be  readily 
seen  that  with  receipts  in  New  York  varying  from  1  to  80  carlots 
daily  during  a  season,  average  weekly  maximum  temperatures  rang- 
ing from  62°  to  88°,  and  weeks  of  each  season  numbering  from  1  to  6, 
thousands  of  combinations  would  be  possible.  A  complete  table  show- 
ing the  estimated  prices  for  all  of  these  combinations  would  not  be  so 
usable  as  a  table  giving  estimated  prices  for  a  limited  number  of 
combinations  of  these  factors  whose  relationships  to  actual  prices 
during  the  past  six  years  have  been  calculated.  Table  17  gives  the 
estimated  prices  which  we  would  expect  in  1927,  assuming  a  price 
level  of  155,  and  the  receipts  and  week  of  the  season  as  indicated. 
Temperatures  are  assumed  to  be  the  average  in  this  table.  Thus  with 
average  receipts  of  5  carlots  during  the  first  week  and  average  tem- 
peratures, the  expected  price  of  a  standard  crate  is  $8.43.  With 
average  receipts  of  15  carlots  daily  during  the  second  week  and 
average  temperatures,  a  price  of  $5.75  would  be  expected.  Figure  9 
illustrates  table  17  and  also  shows  the  gradations  in  estimated  prices 
for  receipts  between  5,  10,  15,  etc.,  carlots. 


42 


UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 


The  probable  effect  of  temperature  on  price  can  be  calculated  by 
multiplying  the  prices  given  in  table  17  (or  as  read  from  the  curves 
in  figure  9)   by  the  appropriate  correction  factor  in  table  18  if  the 

Probable  Prices  of  Imperial  Valley  Cantaloupes  at  New  York  for 
Successive  Weeks,  and  Varying  Carlot  Eeceipts 

Vof/ors 
Per- 
Cra-fre 


grts-f 

Week 

Week- — > 

3r< 

i  Week^^ 

4-H 

Week- — y 

Si-/} 

Week — -^ 
Week — * 

O  /O  ZO  JO  40  50  <SO  lO  SO 

Car/oi-    Qeceip>-fe 

Fig.  9. — The  average  net  effect  of  the  week  of  the  season  and  of  receipts  on 
prices  from  1921  to  1926,  assuming  average  temperatures.  The  average  prices 
of  a  crate  for  the  second  week  are  4.5  per  cent  lower  than  the  prices  prevailing 
for  the  same  volume  of  receipts  the  first  week.  The  third  week's  prices  are 
4.5  per  cent  below  those  of  the  second  week  for  the  same  volume  of  receipts, 
and  so  on  for  the  rest  of  the  six  weeks. 


TABLE  17 

Estimated  Prices*  for  1927  by  Specific  Weeks  and  Carlot  Eeceipts, 

Assuming  Average  Temperatures  for  Each  Week 


Receipts 
carlots  per  day 

1st  week 

2nd  week 

3rd  week 

4th  week 

5th  week 

6th  week 

5 

$8.43 

10 

6.83 

$6.52 

15 

6.04 

5.75 

20 

5.53 

5.27 

$5.03 

30 

4.67 

4.44 

$4.24 

40 

4.27 

4.07 

3.88 

$3.70 

$3.52 

50 

3.81 

3.63 

3.46 

3.29 

60 

3.61 

3.43 

3.27 

3.11 

70 

3.14 

2.97 

80 

2.85 

*  These  prices  were  obtained  from  the  following  formula: 

log  X  =+l.  1589-0.3036  log  A+0.0071  b  -0.0210C 
These  prices  can  be  corrected  for  deviations  from  the  average  temperatures  by  using  the  correction 
factor  given  jn  table  18. 


BUL.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY 


43 


temperature  is  above  the  average,  or  dividing  by  the  appropriate 
correction  factor  if  the  temperature  is  below  the  average.  To  illustrate 
the  use  of  these  tables  let  us  assume  the  same  conditions  as  in  the 
preceding  section. 

TABLE  18 

Data  for  Correcting  Price  Estimates  Given  in  Table  17  for  Deviations 

from  Average  Temperatures 


Deviations  from  average 

maximum  temperatures* 

in  degrees  Fahrenheit 

Temperature  correction 
factor 

0 

1.000 

1 

1 

017 

2 

1 

033 

3 

1 

050 

4 

1 

068 

5 

1 

085 

6 

1 

103 

7 

1 

121 

8 

1 

140 

9 

1 

159 

10 

1 

178 

11 

1 

197 

12 

1 

217 

*  Average  maximum  temperatures  in  degrees  Fahrenheit  for  the  seasons  of  1921-1926  were:     1st 
week  72.6°,  2nd  week  74.8°,  3rd  week  77.5°,  4th  week  77.8°,  5th  week  77.6°,  6th  week  79.0°. 

Illustration  1.  On  the  basis  of  the  above  tables  let  us  estimate  the 
price  for  a  certain  week  in  1927,  assuming  a  definite  set  of  conditions. 
Take,  for  example,  the  first  week  and  assume  that  shipments  from 
Imperial  Valley  and  diversions  indicate  average  receipts  of  10  carlots 
daily  for  the  first  week,  and  an  average  maximum  temperature  lagged 
three  days  (from  Thursday  of  the  previous  week  to  Wednesday  of  the 
week  in  which  the  receipts  are  based)  of  70  degrees.  Referring  to 
table  17,  we  note  that  with  average  temperatures,  daily  receipts  of 
10  carlots  the  first  week  would  be  expected  to  result  in  a  price  of 
$6.83  for  a  standard  crate.  However,  the  temperature  assumed  is 
70  degrees  Fahrenheit,  while  the  average  temperature  for  the  first 
week  has  been  72.6  degrees  (see  footnote  table  18).  Hence,  we  must 
calculate  the  probable  effect  of  the  low  temperature  by  dividing  $6.83 
by  the  proper  correction  factor.  The  nearest  whole  number  for  the 
deviation  of  2.6  degrees  from  the  average  is  3  degrees  (table  18),  for 
which  the  correction  factor  given  is  1.050.  This  factor,  divided  into 
$6.83,  gives  an  estimated  price  of  $6.50. 

If  one  wishes  to  go  to  the  trouble  of  getting  the  correction  factor 
for  2.6  degrees  instead  of  taking  the  nearest  whole  number,  one  can 


44  UNIVERSITY    OF    CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT    STATION 

get  the  more  exact  correction  factor  by  interpolation.  That  is,  the 
correction  factor  for  2  degrees  is  1.033,  and  for  3  degrees,  1.050. 
Taking  six-tenths  of  the  difference  between  these  correction  factors 
(0.6  X  0.017)  equals  0.010.  Adding  0.010  to  1.033  equals  1.043— the 
correct  factor  for  a  deviation  of  2.6  degrees  from  the  average.  This 
divided  into  $6.83  gives  $6.54  as  the  estimated  price  of  a  standard 
crate  for  the  conditions  assumed,  which  is  the  same  as  the  estimated 
price  calculated  by  means  of  the  equation  in  illustration  1  of  the 
previous  section.  Of  course,  for  practical  purposes  there  is  no  point 
in  adjusting  for  fractional  differences  in  temperature.  The  only 
purpose  in  calculating  it  here  is  to  show  that  the  estimated  prices 
calculated  from  the  equation  in  the  previous  sections  and  from  tables 
17  and  18  of  this  section  yield  identical  results. 

Illustration  2.  Let  us  assume  the  same  conditions  as  in  illustra- 
tion 2  of  the  previous  section,  viz.,  daily  receipts  at  New  York  of  70 
carlots  for  the  fifth  week,  and  average  maximum  temperatures  from 
the  previous  Thursday  to  the  Wednesday  of  this  week  of  85  degrees. 
For  average  temperatures  the  most  probable  price  would  be  $3.14 
(table  17).  However,  the  temperature  assumed  here  is  7.4  degrees 
(85  —  77.6)  above  the  average.  The  correction  factor  for  7  degrees 
(table  18)  is  1.121.  Multiplying  this  factor  by  $3.14  gives  $3.52  as  the 
estimated  price  of  a  standard  crate.  The  estimated  price  secured  by 
the  equation  in  the  previous  section,  illustration  2,  is  also  $3.52. 

It  should  be  noted  again  at  this  point  that  in  correcting  for  devia- 
tions above  the  average  temperature  the  correction  factor  (table  18) 
is  multiplied  by  the  estimates  shown  in  table  17,  but  in  correcting  for 
deviations  below  the  average  temperature,  the  correction  factor  is 
divided  into  the  estimates  shown  in  table  17. 


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

Acknowledgments  are  due  W.  P.  Hedden,  Research  Agent,  Port 
of  New  York  Authority  and  U.  S.  Bureau  of  Agricultural  Economics, 
for  valuable  suggestions  in  planning  this  investigation.  Also  to  C,  EL 
Schultz,  local  representative  of  the  U.  S. .  Bureau  of  Agricultural 
Economics,  and  to  O.  W.  Schleussner,  of  the  American  Fruit  Growers, 
Inc.,  for  reading  the  second  draft  of  the  manuscript  and  offering 
constructive  criticism.  C.  M.  Titus,  Associate  Statistician  of  this 
Experiment  Station,  read  the  second  draft  of  the  manuscript  and 
carefully  checked  the  statistical  methods  used. 


Bul.  419]        ECONOMIC  ASPECTS  OF  THE  CANTALOUPE  INDUSTRY  45 


LITERATURE  CITED 

(1)  SCHULTZ,   C.    E.,   AND   GEO.    E.   PRINCE. 

1926    (May).     Summary  of  western  cantaloupe  deals,  season  1925.     U.S. 
Bur.  of  Agr.  Econ.  Mimeo.  Report,  1-56. 

(2)  Lamb,  R.  H. 

1924  (Aug.).     Colorado  cantaloupe  deal,  season  1923.     U.S.  Bur.  of  Agr. 
Econ.  Mimeo.  Report,  1-18. 

(3)  Schultz,  C.  E. 

1926  (July  2).     Preliminary  review  of  the  1926  Imperial  Valley  cantaloupe 
deal.    U.  S.  Bur.  of  Agr.  Econ.  Mimeo.  Report,  1-8. 

(4)  SCHLEUSSNER,   O.   W.,  AND  C.   W.   KlTCHEN. 

1916.     Marketing  and  distribution  of  western  muskmelons  in  1915.     U.  S. 
Dept.  of  Agr.  Bul.  401:1-38. 

(5)  Mills,  F.  C. 

1924.     Statistical  methods.     1-604.    Henry  Holt  and  Co.,  New  York. 

(6)  Miller,  O.  D. 

1923.  Review  of  the  1923  season  for  California  cantaloupes  on  the  New 
York  market.     U.  S.  Bur.  of  Agr.  Econ.  Mimeo.  Report,  1-3. 

(7)  Callanan,  V.  D.,  and  S.  W.  Russell. 

1924.  Review  of  the  1924  season  for  California  contaloupes  on  the  New 
York  market.    U.  S.  Bur.  of  Agr.  Econ.  Mimeo.  Report,  1-7. 

(8)  Warren,  G.  F. 

1923.     Prices  of  farm  products  in  New  York.     Cornell  Univ.  Agr.  Exp. 
Sta.  Bul.  416:1-63. 

(9)  Dept.  of  Agr.  Econ.  and  Farm  Management,  New  York  State   College  of 

Agr.,  Cornell  Univ. 
1926  (May  15).    Farm  Economics  34:441-456. 

do)  Callanan,  V.  D.,  and  C.  E.  Schultz. 

1923.     Imperial  Valley  cantaloupe  deal,  season  1923.    Mimeo.  Report,  1-24. 

(id  Wallace,  H.  A.,  and  Geo.  W.  Snedecor. 

1925.  Correlation  and  machine  calculation.     Iowa  State  College  of  Agr. 
and  Mechanic  Arts  Official  Publication  2335:l-47. 


STATION  PUBLICATIONS  AVAILABLE  FOR  FREE  DISTRIBUTION 


No. 

253.   Irrigation   and   Soil   Conditions   in  the 
Sierra   Nevada   Foothills,    California. 

261.  Melaxuma    of    the    Walnut,     "Juglans 

regia." 

262.  Citrus   Diseases   of   Florida    and   Cuba 

Compared  with  Those  of  California. 

263.  Size   Grades   for  Ripe   Olives. 

268.  Growing  and  Grafting  Olive  Seedlings. 
273.  Preliminary  Report  on  Kearney  Vine- 
yard  Experimental   Drain. 

275.  The     Cultivation     of     Belladonna     in 

California. 

276.  The  Pomegranate. 

277.  Sudan    Grass. 

278.  Grain    Sorghums. 

279.  Irrigation   of  Rice  in    California. 
283.  The  Olive  Insects  of  California. 
294.   Bean   Culture  in   California. 

304.  A   Study  of  the  Effects  of  Freezes  on 

Citrus    in    California. 
310.  Plum    Pollination. 

312.  Mariout   Barley. 

313.  Pruning      Young      Deciduous      Fruit 

Trees. 
319.   Caprifigs    and    Caprification. 

324.  Storage  of   Perishable  Fruit  at  Freez- 

ing Temperatures. 

325.  Rice     Irrigation     Measurements      and 

Experiments    in    Sacramento    Valley, 

1914-1919. 
328.   Prune    Growing   in    California. 
331.   Phylloxera-Resistant    Stocks. 
335.   Cocoanut    Meal    as    a    Feed   for    Dairy 

Cows   and    Other   Livestock. 

339.  The    Relative    Cost    of    Making    Logs 

from   Small   and  Large  Timber. 

340.  Control     of     the     Pocket     Gopher     in 

California. 

343.  Cheese    Pests    and    Their    Control. 

344.  Cold    Storage    as    an   Aid   to   the   Mar- 

keting of  Plums. 

346.  Almond    Pollination. 

347.  The  Control  of  Red  Spiders  in  Decid- 

uous Orchards. 

348.  Pruning  Young  Olive  Trees. 

349.  A     Study    of    Sidedraft    and    Tractor 

Hitches. 

350.  Agriculture      in      Cut-over      Redwood 

Lands. 

352.  Further  Experiments  in  Plum  Pollina- 

tion. 

353.  Bovine   Infectious   Abortion. 

354.  Results  of  Rice  Experiments  in   1922. 

357.  A     Self-mixing    Dusting    Machine    for 

Applying      Dry      Insecticides       and 
Fungicides. 

358.  Black    Measles,    Water    Berries,     and 

Related  Vine  Troubles. 

361.  Preliminary    Yield    Tables    for    Second 

Growth   Redwood. 

362.  Dust   and  the  Tractor  Engine. 

363.  The  Pruning  of  Citrus  Trees  in  Cali- 

fornia. 

364.  Fungicidal    Dusts    for   the    Control    of 

Bunt. 

365.  Avocado  Culture  in  California. 

366.  Turkish  Tobacco  Culture,   Curing  and 

Marketing. 

367.  Methods  of  Harvesting  and  Irrigation 

in  Relation   of  Mouldy  Walnuts. 

368.  Bacterial  Decomposition  of  Olives  dur- 

ing Pickling. 

369.  Comparison     of     Woods     for     Butter 

Boxes. 


BULLETINS 
No. 


370. 
371. 


37'. 


373. 
374. 


375. 

376. 

377. 
379. 
380. 

381. 

382. 

383. 

385. 
386. 

387. 
388. 

389. 
390. 

391. 

392. 
393. 
394. 

395. 
396. 

397. 

398. 
399. 


400. 
401. 

402. 
403. 
404. 
405. 
406. 
407. 


408. 
409. 


410. 
411. 
412. 

413. 
414. 


Browning  of  Yellow  Newtown  Apples. 

The  Relative  Cost  of  Yarding  Small 
and   Large   Timber. 

The  Cost  of  Producing  Market  Milk  and 
Butterfat  on  246  California  Dairies. 

Pear    Pollination. 

A  Survey  of  Orchard  Practices  in  the 
Citrus  Industry  of  Southern  Cali- 
fornia. 

Results  of  Rice  Experiments  at  Cor- 
tena,    1923. 

Sun-Drying  and  Dehydration  of  Wal- 
nuts. 

The   Cold   Storage   of   Pears. 

Walnut   Culture   in   California. 

Growth  of  Eucalyptus  in  California 
Plantations. 

Growing  and  Handling  Asparagus 
Crowns. 

Pumping  for  Drainage  in  the  San 
Joaquin    Valley,    California. 

Monilia  Blossom  Blight  (Brown  Rot) 
of  Apricot. 

Pollination    of    the    Sweet    Cherry. 

Pruning  Bearing  Deciduous  Fruit 
Trees. 

Fig   Smut. 

The  Principles  and  Practice  of  Sun- 
drying  Fruit. 

Berseem  or   Egyptian    Clover. 

Harvesting  and  Packing  Grapes  in 
California. 

Machines  for  Coating  Seed  Wheat  with 
Copper    Carbonate    Dust. 

Fruit    Juice    Concentrates. 

Crop  Sequences  at  Davis. 

Cereal  Hay  Production  in  California. 
Feeding  Trials  with  Cereal  Hay. 

Bark   Diseases   of   Citrus   Trees. 

The  Mat  Bean  (Phaseolus  aconitifo- 
lius). 

Manufacture  of  Roquefort  Type  Cheese 
from   Goat's   Milk. 

Orchard  Heating  in  California. 

The  Blackberry  Mite,  the  Cause  of 
Redberry  Disease  of  the  Himalaya 
Blackberry,    and   its   Control. 

The  Utilization  of  Surplus  Plums. 

Cost  of  Work  Horses  on  California 
Farms. 

The  Codling  Moth  in  Walnuts. 

Farm-Accounting  Associations. 

The  Dehydration  of  Prunes. 

Citrus  Culture  in  Central  California. 

Stationary  Spray  Plants  in  California. 

Yield,  Stand  and  Volume  Tables  for 
White  Fir  in  the  California  Pine 
Region. 

Alternaria  Rot  of  Lemons. 

The  Digestibility  of  Certain  Fruit  By- 
products as  Determined  for  Rumi- 
nants. 

Factors  Affecting  the  Quality  of  Fresh 
Asparagus  after  it  is  Harvested. 

Paradichlorobenzene  as  a  Soil  Fumi- 
gant. 

A  Study  of  the  Relative  Values  of  Cer- 
tain Root  Crops  and  Salmon  Oil  as 
Sources  of  Vitamin  A  for  Poultry. 

The  California  Poultry  Industry;  a 
Statistical   Study. 

Planting  and  Thinning  Distances  for 
Deciduous  Fruit  Trees. 


the 


the 


No. 

87.  Alfalfa. 
117.  The    Selection    and    Cost    of    a    Small 

Pumping   Plant. 
127.  House    Fumigation. 
129.  The  Control  of  Citrus   Insects. 
136.  Melilotus    indica    as    a    Green-Manure 

Crop  for  California. 
144.   Oidium    or    Powdery    Mildew    of 

Vine. 
157.   Control  of  the  Pear   Scab. 
160.   Lettuce  Growing  in  California. 
164.   Small  Fruit  Culture  in  California. 
166.   The   County   Farm  Bureau. 
170.   Fertilizing     California     Soils     for 

1918   Crop. 
173.  The    Construction    of    the    Wood-Hoop 

Silo. 

178.  The   Packing  of  Apples   in   California. 

179.  Factors    of    Importance    in    Producing 

Milk  of  Low  Bacterial  Count. 
190.  Agriculture  Clubs  in  California. 
199.   Onion    Growing   in    California. 

202.  County    Organizations   for   Rural   Fire 

Control. 

203.  Peat   as    a   Manure    Substitute. 

209.  The  Function  of  the  Farm  Bureau. 

210.  Suggestions  to  the  Settler  in  California. 
212.   Salvaging    Rain-Damaged    Prunes. 
215.   Feeding  Dairy  Cows  in  California. 
217.  Methods   for   Marketing  Vegetables   in 

California. 
220.   Unfermented   Fruit   Juices. 
228.  Vineyard  Irrigation  in  Arid  Climates. 

230.  Testing  Milk,    Cream,    and   Skim   Milk 

for  Butterfat. 

231.  The    Home    Vineyard. 

232.  Harvesting    and    Handling    California 

Cherries    for    Eastern    Shipment. 

234.  Winter  Injury  to  Young  Walnut  Trees 

during  1921-22. 

235.  Soil     Analysis     and     Soil     and     Plant 

Inter-relations. 

236.  The    Common     Hawks     and     Owls    of 

California    from    the    Standpoint    of 
the  Rancher. 

237.  Directions  for  the  Tanning  and  Dress- 

ing of  Furs. 

238.  The  Apricot  in  California. 

239.  Harvesting     and     Handling     Apricots 

and  Plums  for  Eastern   Shipment. 

240.  Harvesting    and    Handling    Pears    for 

Eastern   Shipment. 

241.  Harvesting  and  Handling  Peaches  for 

Eastern   Shipment. 

243.  Marmalade  Juice  and  Jelly  Juice  from 

Citrus  Fruits. 

244.  Central  Wire  Bracing  for  Fruit  Trees. 

245.  Vine   Pruning   Systems. 

247.  Colonization    and    Rural    Development. 

248.  Some   Common    Errors    in    Vine  Prun- 

ing and  Their  Remedies. 

249.  Replacing    Missing    Vines. 

250.  Measurement   of    Irrigation   Water   on 

the  Farm. 

252.  Supports  for  Vines. 

253.  Vineyard  Plans. 

254.  The  Use  of  Artificial  Light  to  Increase 

Winter    Egg    Production. 


CIRCULARS 
No. 


255. 

256. 
257. 
258. 
259. 
261. 
262. 
263. 
264. 

265. 
266. 

267. 

269. 

270. 
272. 

273. 
274. 

276. 
277. 

278. 

279. 

281. 


282. 

283. 
284. 
285. 
286. 
287. 
288. 
289. 
290. 
291. 

292. 
293. 
294. 
295. 

296. 

298. 

299. 
300. 
301. 
302. 
303. 

304. 
305. 
306. 

307. 

308. 


Leguminous  Plants  as  Organic  Fertil- 
izer   in    California    Agriculture. 

The   Control   of   Wild   Morning   Glory. 

The  Small-Seeded  Horse  Bean. 

Thinning   Deciduous   Fruits. 

Pear  By-products. 

Sewing  Grain  Sacks. 

Cabbage  Growing  in  California. 

Tomato  Production  in  California. 

Preliminary  Essentials  to  Bovine 
Tuberculosis  Control. 

Plant   Disease   and   Pest   Control. 

Analyzing  the  Citrus  Orchard  by 
Means   of    Simple   Tree   Records. 

The  Tendency  of  Tractors  to  Rise  in 
Front;    Causes   and  Remedies. 

An  Orchard  Brush  Burner. 

A  Farm  Septic  Tank. 

California  Farm  Tenancy  and  Methods 
of  Leasing. 

Saving  the   Gophered   Citrus  Tree. 

Fusarium  Wilt  of  Tomato  and  its  Con- 
trol by  Means  of  Resistant  Varieties. 

Home  Canning. 

Head,  Cane,  and  Cordon  Pruning  of 
Vines. 

Olive  Pickling  in  Mediterranean  Coun- 
tries. 

The  Preparation  and  Refining  of  Olive 
Oil  in   Southern   Europe. 

The  Results  of  a  Survey  to  Determine 
the  Cost  of  Producing  Beef  in  Cali- 
fornia. 

Prevention  of  Insect  Attack  on  Stored 
Grain. 

Fertilizing  Citrus  Trees  in  California. 

The   Almond   in   California. 

Sweet  Potato  Production  in  California. 

Milk  Houses  for  California  Dairies. 

Potato   Production   in   California. 

Phylloxera  Resistant  Vineyards. 

Oak  Fungus  in  Orchard  Trees. 

The  Tangier  Pea. 

Blackhead  and  Other  Causes  of  Loss 
of  Turkeys  in   California. 

Alkali  Soils. 

The    Basis    of   Grape    Standardization. 

Propagation   of   Deciduous   Fruits. 

The  Growing  and  Handling  of  Head 
Lettuce  in   California. 

Control  of  the  California  Ground 
Squirrel. 

The  Possibilities  and  Limitations  of 
Cooperative  Marketing. 

Poultry   Breeding  Records. 

Coccidiosis  of  Chickens. 

Buckeye  Poisoning  of  the  Honey  Bee. 

The   Sugar  Beet  in   California. 

A  Promising  Remedy  for  Black  Measles 
of  the  Vine. 

Drainage  on  the  Farm. 

Liming  the  Soil. 

A  General  Purpose  Soil  Auger  and  its 
Use  on  the  Farm. 

American   Foulbrood   and  its   Control. 

Cantaloupe  Production  in  California. 


The  publications  listed  above  may  be  had  by  addressing 

College  of  Agriculture, 

University  of  California, 

Berkeley,  California. 

12m-2,'27 


